• Gold: 1,279.37 -1.06
  • Silver: 16.53 -0.06
  • Euro: 1.160 -0.001
  • USDX: 94.789 -0.19
  • Oil: 64.09 -2.92

August 15: Gold and Silver Gain About 2% and 5%

Chris Mullen
|
Thursday, August 15th
 

Close

Gain/Loss

Gold

$1362.90

+$27.90

Silver

$22.93

+$1.09

XAU

111.03

+5.54%

HUI

276.49

+6.15%

GDM

837.27

+5.93%

JSE Gold

1331.27

+7.67

USD

81.13

-0.56

Euro

133.58

+1.01

Yen

102.93

+0.97

Oil

$107.33

+$0.48

10-Year

2.755%

+0.043

T-Bond

131.71875

-0.90625

Dow

15112.19

-1.47%

Nasdaq

3606.11

-1.72%

S&P

1661.32

-1.43%

 
 

The Metals:

 

Gold rose $11.04 to $1346.04 in Asia before it fell to see a $16.01 loss at $1318.99 after this morning jobs data was released, but it then rallied back higher throughout most of the rest of trade and ended near its midafternoon high of $1369.59 with a gain of 2.09%. Silver climbed to $22.171 in Asia before it fell to as low as $21.71 at about 9AM EST, but it then rose to as high as $23.171 and ended with a gain of 4.99%.

 

Euro gold climbed over €1020, platinum gained $22.25 to $1522.50, and copper climbed a couple of cents to about $3.36.

 

Gold and silver equities opened up about 2% lower before they rose to see about 1% gains in the next half hour of trade and then fell back near their opening lows by midmorning, but they then climbed about 6% higher by midafternoon and remained near that level for the rest of the day.

The Economy:

 

Report

For

Reading

Expected

Previous

Initial Claims

8/10

320K

339K

335K

CPI

July

0.2%

0.2%

0.5%

Core CPI

July

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

Empire Manufacturing

Aug

8.6

6.0

9.46

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

June

-$66.9B

-

$27.0B

Industrial Output

July

0.0%

0.4%

0.2%

Capacity Utilization

July

77.6%

78.0%

77.7%

Philadelphia Fed

Aug

9.3

10.0

19.8

NAHB Housing Market Index

Aug

59

57

56

 

Tomorrow brings Housing Starts, Building Permits, Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, and Michigan Sentiment.

 

The Markets:

 

Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

Oil climbed higher on worries about worsening violence in Egypt.

 

Treasuries fell on better than expected housing and jobs data that increased the possibility of fed tapering and sent the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P markedly lower on the back of more disappointing earnings reports.

 

The U.S. dollar index erased early gains and fell off rather markedly in early afternoon trade as forex traders moved past the housing and jobs data and chose to instead focus on the disappointing industrial and manufacturing data.

 

Among the big names making news in the market today were Kohl’s, JPMorgan, Sirius, Wal-Mart, and Cisco.

The Commentary:

 

WOW! What a day in the precious metals complex! The entire sector was firing on all cylinders in today's session with the HUI breaking out above the recent swing high and generating solid buy signals across a wide number of the individual shares. If that was not enough, silver, which is the KING of the precious metals complex of late, smashed through $22, then $22.50 and then $23 before it set back. Meanwhile, the yellow metal took out a serious band of overhead resistance on its price chart as well.

Early in the session, gold was lower as the unemployment number brought on the talk of tapering once again. However, around mid-morning here, it reversed course with many citing the rapidly deteriorating situation occurring over in Egypt as the catalyst. I agree with that assessment as events in the Middle East seem to be going from bad to worse. Brent Crude has certainly taken notice!

It also seems as if the unrest in that region has been an excuse for some to take some profits out of the equity markets as well. Incidentally, the US Dollar, instead of seeing a safe haven flow on a day like this, especially with the rising yield on the Ten Year which is now near 2.78%, ended up being the whipping boy today against a host of majors. The Swiss Franc definitely saw some safe haven buying.

I keep wondering if forex traders are beginning to grow concerned over the upcoming US budget battle and burgeoning debt levels once again.

When you get a day like this, with so many huge moves taking place (even in the grains - more on that later), it is a sign that money managers are reallocating some investment funds and moving into and out of various sectors. With all the short positions we have seen in the gold market in particular, there is not a lot of exposure to the precious metals by this group compared to what we have seen at some points in the past. The technical showing has them not only covering shorts, but some are moving onto the long side of the market. THAT is exactly what this market has been missing for a very long time now. I will say it again and again - it is not the bullion banks that bother me all that much (they have been buying of late anyway and yes I do believe that they work to cap rallies) - it is what the large speculators are doing or not doing as has been the case for the metals of late and what they have not been doing is buying. It now seems that they are.

It is perhaps ironic that the big move higher in the metals has come just after news was released that famous hedge fund manager Paulson had cut this holdings in the ETF significantly. OUCH!

I want to mention here just in passing that this sharp move higher in gold has not changed the futures market structure as far as that backwardation/contango situation goes. The spreads remain tight with the August bid at the same level as the December and the October exactly 10 cents above the December. A friendly structure but not a full bore backwardation either. December remains at a 90 cent discount to the February 2014 contract and about a $3.00 discount to the June 2014.

 

Let's start with the star of the complex of late, and that is silver. One look at the chart says it all. Silver can now be officially labeled as having rallied over 20% off its recent low. For definition purposes, that is considered a bull market. It does not mean it is going to the moon; it does mean that the bear market is over barring any subsequent sharp price collapse in the metal. You will also notice that on the Directional Movement Indicator the ADX is now beginning to turn higher. It was rising strongly since early February indicating the presence of a sustained DOWNTREND. The line then turned down for good in late June/early July indicating that the downtrend was halted. That was followed by a period of sideways trade or consolidation. Now the ADX line is rising indicating that silver is in the incipient stages of a trending move, this time however, to the upside. As you can also see that is confirmed by the fact that the +DI (blue line) has now crossed solidly above the -DI (red line) which is moving lower.

Downside support in this market remains near $20.50 which is also not far from the 50 day moving average of $20.25 and is also beginning to rise, albeit slightly.

More later - markets beckoning...- Dan Norcini, More at http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

1. The operative praise today is "How goes Wal-Mart consumers, so goes the American economy."

 

2. So goes a reporting period in the jobs markets simply representing more adjusted to the dickens and therefore worthless statistics.

 

3. John Williams’ www.ShadowStats.com is worth more than 1000 Bureau of Statistics.

 

4. All of Arab Spring is a total disaster for the West and was from day #1.

 

5. The gold market bottom price is firmly in.

 

6. There is a good year coming for all things precious.

 

7. Gold will see new highs before this rally we are now in makes room for the following phase.

 

8. The leadership of the new long term gold share bull market is coming out of the junior category from the forward thinking and acting, not colonialist in corporate culture, companies with low cost production using cheaper but ecologically safe procedures. They are primarily self financing in their business model.

 

9. There is no question about the fact that Bail In is coming to all banks that have partaken in any form of Federal assistance.

 

10. There is a strong possibility that the new Bail In procedure will stop at the level of account guarantee because it will include an exchange of shares in worthless bad banks and blocked deposits.

 

11. From the first day of US Fed inception, MOPE has predicted QE to be imminently ending, Now the operative MOPE word is "Tapper."

 

12. QE goes to infinity which is defined by the level of the US dollar on the USDX in the low 70s.

 

Gold and good gold shares are insurance against the intact, destruction, economic and monetary trends.

 

Be strong.

 

Sincerely,”- Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com

 

GATA Posts:

 

Mark O'Byrne: Market manipulation explains gold price plunge amid soaring demand

 

The Statistics:

As of close of business: 8/14/2013

Gold Warehouse Stocks:

6,998,990.921

+31,740.429

Silver Warehouse Stocks:

165,460,924.417

+591,004.75

 

Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]

 

Product name

Total Tonnes

Total Ounces

Total Value

New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) AND Mexico Stock Exchange (BMV)

SPDR® Gold Shares

913.233

29,361,356

US$38,925m

London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra)

Gold Bullion Securities

138.13

4,441,056

US$5,954m

London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) AND NYSE Euronext Amsterdam

ETFS Physical Gold

152.66

4,908,200

US$8,004m

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)

Gold Bullion Securities

11.16

358,789

US$481m

Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)

New Gold Debentures

42.53

1,367,338

US$1,814m

Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: SPDR ADDED 2.103 tonnes.

 

COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total Tonnes in Trust: 177.60: No change from yesterday’s data.

Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 10,453.72: No change from yesterday’s data.

 

The Miners:

 

Pretivm’s (PVG) bulk sample program, MAG Silver’s (MVG) second quarter results, Silver Bull’s (SVBL) underground sampling, SilverCrest’s (SVL.V) second quarter results, Fortuna’s (FSM) drill results, and Pan American Silver’s (PAAS) second quarter production results were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.

 

WINNERS

1. Vista Gold

VGZ +17.39% $1.08

2. Golden Minerals

AUMN +17.05% $1.51

3. Tanzanian Royalty

TRX +11.23% $4.06

LOSERS

1. Midway

MDW -5.93% $1.11

2. Mag Silver

MVG -1.56% $6.93

3. Richmont

RIC -1.12% $1.76

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

Please see Yahoo’s Mining/Metals News Wire for all of today’s mining news.

 

- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

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Additional Resources for today’s Gold Seeker Report can be found:

© Gold Seeker 2013

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