• Gold: 1,274.86 0.16
  • Silver: 14.47 0.02
  • Euro: 1.116 0.000
  • USDX: 98.01 -0.052
  • Oil: 61.24 -1.8

February 19: Gold and Silver Fall Slightly

Chris Mullen
|
Tuesday, February 19th
 

Close

Gain/Loss

Gold

$1604.90

-$4.00

Silver

$29.41

-$0.39

XAU

141.98

-1.33%

HUI

374.96

-1.12%

GDM

1097.48

-1.21%

JSE Gold

2068.78

-18.79

USD

80.46

-0.01

Euro

133.89

+0.27

Yen

106.90

-0.03

Oil

$96.66

+$0.80

10-Year

2.026%

+0.019

T-Bond

143.00

-0.50

Dow

14035.67

+0.39%

Nasdaq

3213.59

+0.68%

S&P

1530.94

+0.73%

 
 

The Metals:

 

Gold climbed $5.85 to $1614.75 in Asia before it fell to as low as $1600.54 in early afternoon New York trade, but it then bounced back higher in the last four hours of trade and ended with a loss of just 0.25%. Silver slipped to as low as $29.22 before it also rebounded, but it still ended with a loss of 1.31%.

 

Euro gold fell to about €1199, platinum rose $12 to $1688, and copper dropped to about $3.65.

 

Gold and silver equities fell a little over 1% at the open and remained near that level for the rest of the day.

The Economy:

 

Report

For

Reading

Expected

Previous

NAHB Housing Market Index

Feb

46

48

47

 

Forecasters keep thinking there’s a recovery just around the corner. They’re always wrong. Washington Post

Bipartisan commission proposes $2.4 trillion deficit reduction Reuters

Erskine Bowles pessimistic about a ‘grand bargain’ POLITICO

Tomorrow brings Housing Starts, Building Permits, PPI, and FOMC Minutes.

 

The Markets:

 

Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

Oil ended decently higher on increased demand expectations after a better than expected investor confidence report in Germany.

 

The U.S. dollar index fell as the yen rose after “Japanese finance minister Taro Aso said the government doesn’t intend to buy foreign bonds to end deflation by weakening the currency.”

 

Treasuries fell as the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P found decent gains on merger activity.

 

Among the big names making news in the market today were Office Max and Office Depot, HTC, Google, Staples, and Wal-Mart.

The Commentary:

 

Sterling Gold, or Gold priced in terms of the British Pound, displays a chart pattern not unlike that which we have recently seen in US Dollar priced gold, prior to last Friday's sharp downside break.

It is in a consolidation pattern dating back to the summer of last year. Dips below the 1,000 Pound mark have been met with solid buying but the metal has not been able to overcome downtrending resistance. Note that the pattern is forming that same wedge pattern that we saw in US Dollar priced gold.

 

Note the Gold price in terms of the Swiss Franc, or Swissie Gold. The pattern also reveals a market in consolidation; however, it is now moving down towards the bottom of the channel that has confined price since last summer. Price near and below 1450 Franc has attracted buying consistently, so far.

 

See also this Euro Gold chart which displays a consolidation pattern much like the Swissie Gold chart above. Gold is probing the lower boundary of the channel noted and is moving towards the 1200 Euro region. Since last summer, buyers have surfaced in this area.

 

The reason I am noting these three charts above is because unlike the US Dollar priced gold chart, they have not yet broken down technically but remain in their consolidation patterns, although it is evident that they are currently weak.

The big question which many of us are asking is whether or not enough valued based buyers will surface in these countries/regions to stem any downside potential and put in place a floor of support. This is simply unclear at this point in time.

The European finance ministers are hoping that hedge funds will continue to move money into European equities as well as European area bonds. If they can herd them into these sectors, money flows into gold might be dented sufficiently to breach the downside support levels indicated on the charts. On the other hand, enough players might just be suspect enough of economic/financial conditions in the Euro zone and in Britain to want to hedge their bets with the yellow metal. Again, it is unclear. If the gold bulls in terms of the Pound, Swiss Franc and Euro are ever going to need to perform, it is right here and right now.

I would breathe a sigh of relief if they can push the Euro gold price back above 1270-1280.

I should also note here that while both the Yen and the British Pound have fallen rather sharply against the US Dollar, the Sterling gold chart is nowhere near as bullish as the Yen Gold chart. Yen Gold is evidencing a pause up at current levels whereas Sterling Gold is approaching the bottom of its range trade.

 

With gold currently experiencing weakness in US Dollar terms and having violated a strong downside support level, it behooves us to monitor its price closely in terms of some of these other major currencies to see whether this is merely a Dollar priced phenomenon or something a bit more widespread. If it is the former, the move lower in the price should find a footing sooner rather than later. If it is the latter, odds favor more downside in the US Dollar price of gold. Generally speaking, when the gold price is moving in sync against the majors, it is usually trending. When there is a divergence in its price action among the various majors, it normally tends to favor consolidation. Again, this is a general rule, not one carved in stone.

Time will of course make it clear to all of us.

One last thing - seeing that not much came out of this past weekend's G20 summit over in Moscow, we will have to look to the Eurozone to see what level the Euro must trade at in order to get all of them complaining at the same time. Right now it seems that any complaints about the Euro strength are confined to the Southern tier. Germany seems okay with it. If the Germans begin to make any noises then we will need to see how the Euro begins to react.- Dan Norcini, More at http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

 

GATA Posts:

 

 

Stewart Thompson: QE and gold revaluation

Indian government encourages 'gold' funds NOT to hold real metal

 

The Statistics:

As of close of business: 2/15/2013

Gold Warehouse Stocks:

10,676,012.201

-143,782.142

Silver Warehouse Stocks:

161,516,061.884

+1,273,163.56

 

Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]

 

Product name

Total Tonnes

Total Ounces

Total Value

New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx)

SPDR® Gold Shares

1322.975

42,534,954

US$68,536m

London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra)

Gold Bullion Securities

139.13

4,473,139

US$7,197m

London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) AND NYSE Euronext Amsterdam

ETFS Physical Gold

154.76

4,975,642

US$8,114m

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)

Gold Bullion Securities

11.16

358,789

US$577m

Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)

New Gold Debentures

42.45

1,364,715

US$2,214m

Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.

 

COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total Tonnes in Trust: 220.37: -0.75 change from yesterday’s data.

 

Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 10,521.57: No change from yesterday’s data.

 

The Miners:

 

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) completed financings, Keegan’s (KGN) project progress, and Hecla’s (HL) resumed operations and production at the Lucky Friday mine were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.

 

WINNERS

1. Almaden

AAU+5.02% $2.30

2. DRDGOLD

DRD+3.90% $8.25

3. Aurizon

AZK+1.63% $4.36

LOSERS

1. Sandstorm

SAND -7.73% $10.02

2. Tanzanian Royalty

TRX -5.62% $3.36

3. Gold Reserve

GRZ -5.61% $2.86

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

Please see Yahoo’s Mining/Metals News Wire for all of today’s mining news.

 

- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

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Additional Resources for today’s Gold Seeker Report can be found:

© Gold Seeker 2013

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