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Update on Silver with a follow up from the CFTC

Scott Pluschau
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Friday, March 23rd

This is a continuation from a post I did on silver after the extraordinary price and volume that took place late in the Comex session this past Tuesday. That post can be found here: http://scottpluschau.blogspot.com/2012/03/do-you-believe-that-silver-market-is.html

Silver's 50 day simple moving average of volume is around 44,000 contracts a day. And in three minutes before the close of the Comex it traded nearly 3,000 contracts with a sharp move in price of nearly down 1%. Within minutes after the close it did what I would call a U-turn and proceeded to march back toward where it broke down from in the proceeding overnight session. This seemed rather odd to me at the time and I decided to point it out in a post on the blog.

I also decided to write to two of the commissioners at the CFTC that I have spoken with in the past and inquire about when was the cutoff for the COT report in silver. Was it at the close of the Comex at 1:25PM EST or the close of the globex electronic trading at 5:15PM EST?

One commissioner I still haven't heard back from, but the other one, wrote me that they didn't know off the top of their head for sure and it was too late at night to find out. The email was around 11PM at night, and I have to say that replying to me at this hour was above and beyond the call of duty. This commissioner did follow up with me the following day and let me know that the cutoff for the COT report was at the close of the Comex on Tuesday.

I thanked the commissioner for getting back to me with the information and then I forwarded my blog post to the commissioner, mentioning how some people might refer to this price and volume activity as "banging the close" on any other trading day, but the fact that it was also the cutoff for the COT report seemed interesting.

Later on this commissioner again got back to me and thanked me for the email of mine, and let me know that it was being forwarded to the staff to be examined.

Let's see what happens?

I got a lot of email from readers about my post on gold yesterday which can be found here:
http://scottpluschau.blogspot.com/2012/03/gold-has-my-attention-subscription.html

Many had an interest in learning more about volume profile. I may do a webinar in the future. The foundation of my trading methodology is AMT.

Here is the latest chart on silver and it's not looking bullish at this time. There was a breakdown from a consolidating "Symmetrical Triangle" on the 30 minute chart (see left hand side below), which took place beneath the neckline of a "Head and Shoulders" pattern on the daily chart (see right hand side below). This was a dynamite trading signal. The "Measured Rule" for an initial profit taking target of this triangle was reached pretty quickly, although the H&S is still in play.

I do my best to tweet my posts out promptly via twitter/ScottPluschau
Consulting? ScottPluschau@gmail.com

http://scottpluschau.blogspot.com/

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