• Gold: 1,262.22 -1.55
  • Silver: 17.60 -0.02
  • Euro: 1.093 -0.000
  • USDX: 98.785 -0.385
  • Oil: 49.28 -0.14

Silver Market Morning: April 18 2017 - Gold...

The Shanghai Gold Exchange was trading at 286.00 towards the close today. This translates into $1,286.84. New York closed $3.04 below Shanghai’s closing. London opened at a $0.00 discount to Shanghai. This left all three markets almost in line with each other, which is further testament to the ability of arbitrageurs to smooth out market differences. This is the first time we have seen a zero discount to London prices. It tells us that the gold price is going higher soon!

Econ 101 -- Silver Market Manipulation

It should also be noted that this increase of 38,392 contracts represents the creation of 191,960,000 ounces of virtual/digital silver. Again, The Shills and Apologists will claim that "this is simply producer hedging" or that all is fine because "there's a levered long for every levered short". But how is any of this relatable to the physical price of silver when derivatives representing 20% of total annual mine supply can simply be conjured up from thin air and supplied to money managers and traders as "exposure". Trading in these derivative contracts are no more related to physical silver than is trading of sunflower seeds or baseball cards.

Market Report: Fear taking over

Last week’s market report concluded that with the Syrian situation deteriorating the outlook for the price of gold had rarely been better. Gold and silver have certainly risen, as our introductory chart indicates. Gold in European morning trade was up $34 from last Friday’s close at $1287, and silver up from $18.00 at $18.57. This is a short week given tomorrow’s Good Friday holiday, and with geopolitics taking centre-stage, traders are likely on balance to close short positions today, retaining their longs.

Silver Market Morning: April 13 2017 - Gold...

If the gold price can climb above $1,290 all vestiges of overhead resistance will have evaporated. Yes, the $1,300 level to $1,320 area may well cause a pause in the climb of the gold price for a short while, but essentially the mood for gold and silver will have changed to the upside, it seems. There was no physical buying into the U.S. based gold ETFs yesterday. Despite this the gold price jumped through overhead resistance to current levels.

Silver Market Morning: April 12 2017 - Gold...

We were wrong about more consolidation yesterday. Consolidation is a very difficult process to gauge accurately in terms of timing. It is a process of demand matching supply to the point where a small sale or purchase can make the next move a strong one. We did not realize that this point was reached yesterday, suddenly. After all it has been several weeks since the gold price has been building up sufficient strength to effectively tackle overhead resistance at $1,260, the 200-day average. Yesterday saw it do so, when an ascending top breakout was confirmed technically.

Silver Market Morning: April 11 2017 - Gold firm...

The Syria strike by the U.S. has not heightened tensions between Russia and the U.S. as much as the markets first discounted. It appears that Russia is satisfied with chest beating without action, simply a warning that the U.S. will be met by force next time. If there is another gas attack soon the situation could deteriorate substantially. Meanwhile, the markets, as we thought they would have retreated to where they were before the missile strike.

The decline and fall of the EU

Without the UK, not only does the EU lose much of its importance on the world stage, but the Commission’s budget is left with an enormous hole. That is the decline. The fall is well under way, with capital flight significantly worse than generally realised, as a proper understanding of TARGET2 imbalances shows. Not only is the ECB running out of options, but without major support from Germany, France and Italy, Brussels itself faces a financial crisis. In a highly unusual move, Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan in a letter to his shareholders this week backtracked on his earlier pre-Brexit threat to move jobs from London, declaring that the problem is Europe itself.

Silver Market Morning: April 7 2017 - Gold leaps...

Overnight, the U.S. struck Syria with cruise missiles on President Trump’s order. The global political situation has degenerated, at least for now, causing gold to jump through the 200-day average. Will this hold? At first glance, we would think not, as it is not a cause for war between Russia and the U.S. simply a punitive strike, in response to the use of chemical weapons in what is more than a civil war in Syria. It is, to us, a long term middle east wide religious war between Shia [Assad/Iran, etc] and Sunni [rebels/Saudis, etc] sides of Islam set to continue for the foreseeable future.

Silver Market Morning: April 6 2017 - Gold still...

In Europe, Mario Draghi cautiously implied that the fear of inflation has passed and while risks remain to the downside he was more confident that growth across the E.U. economy is becoming positive. To us there are so many continuing risks in Europe that one needs to continue to question the future of the E.U. economy. What we did find somewhat disturbing in what he said, was that the more positive shape of the economy was due to two factors, monetary policy and the oil price fall.

Still Need To Be Cautious

Over the last week, I have been noting that the silver chart has been the most instructive as to how the complex is running right now. While we certainly broke out over the initial 18 level resistance cited last week, the rally has provided us with yet another possible pitfall, at least until the market proves itself.