• Gold: 1,279.99 -0.17
  • Silver: 17.00 -0.04
  • Euro: 1.177 0.000
  • USDX: 93.701 0.191
  • Oil: 52 0.39

Silver Morning: July-31-2017 -- silver rising in...

A lifetime of experience in global financial markets has taught us to recognize when a market is over extended either way. It has also taught us that it can stay over-extended for a long time The clear signs are when a market has discounted a very rosy future and expected returns are small relative to the price of assets. But in a climate where prices are very high, fund managers have to decide if the reasons are because they are over-bought, or if the money used to buy them is depreciating in value. Right now equity prices relative to fixed interest rate returns are not excessive. But the prospects of higher rates that will change this have been put off, allowing equities and other assets to remain too high for longer. Indeed the temptation this brings is that prices can go, unjustifiably, quite a bit higher. But this brings into view that when markets eventually do turn down they will fall precipitously. In such a climate ‘stop loss’ protections should be replaced with short positions. Once that happens on a large scale interest rates will become irrelevant and permit markets to fall precipitously simply because markets are falling.

Silver Market Morning: July-28-2017

With all the chatter about the timing of rate hikes or trimming the Fed’s Balance Sheet, one very, very important factor is being overlooked in the U.S. If inflation continues at lower or lowering levels and the recovery stalls followed by a downturn, the Fed has almost no more tools with which to combat the falls. As it is rates continue to be so low that any lowering will have little to no impact [unless they go negative] on stimulating the U.S. economy. Likewise, trimming the Fed’s Balance Sheet, we feel, will have little to no impact on the U.S. financial world. If they go that road and there is a downturn in the U.S. further stimulation is likely to crack confidence in the dollar, something that the Fed cannot afford! Certainly little could be more positive for the gold price. Despite their positive demeanor, Fed officials must be very disturbed by the downturn in inflation.

Silver Morning: July-27-2017

The Fed decided not to raise rates, as expected but only said they would start lowering the Fed’s Balance Sheet, relatively soon. This disappointed markets including the global gold markets that are taking the gold price above previous resistance levels into the $1,260 region. But once again the biggest feature of the day was the softening dollar. It has confirmed it is in a ‘bear’ market and will decline over the next few years. More and more analysts including major institutions are now talking the dollar down, over the long term.

Silver Morning: July-25-2017

In addition Chinese demand and the new London based LME precious arbitrage market with Hong Kong is letting London feel Chinese demand directly, in addition to the big banks in China doing the same in London. So we are watching to see where the gold price will go today.

Silver Morning: July-24-2017

This is a structural change in the global gold market and allows a considerably greater influence of the physical gold market [primarily Shanghai] to impact the gold price and diminish the impact of the ‘paper gold markets of COMEX and the ‘paper’ side of the London gold market, across the world. We have highlighted in the Gold Forecaster newsletter of ours that while 90+% of gold-linked transactions go through London and COMEX over 90% of physical gold transactions go through Shanghai. With the impact of the arbitrageurs bringing global gold prices together, we will see, at last, the fundamentals of demand and supply impact the price.

5 Things I Look for in Exploration Companies

There is a decent number of executives in the junior industry that were part of or led a company to an acquisition. If they have done it before then they know what needs to be done in order to do it again. If management has not been involved in a transaction, check to see if they have discovered a deposit or expanded a resource through drilling. Also, seek out the executives that had ample experience at a major company.

Silver Market Morning: July 21 2017 - Gold and...

New York closed only $0.80 lower than Shanghai yesterday and has been trying to follow Shanghai all the way up, with London opening today at a discount to Shanghai’s trading today of $5.06 an narrower discount than we have seen this week. Both London and New York are being pulled up by Shanghai. With this strong Chinese demand the chances of both London and New York breaking through $1,250 are greatly increased.

Silver Market Morning: July 19 2017 - Gold and...

New York closed $2.78 lower than Shanghai’s close yesterday, with London opening today at a discount to Shanghai’s trading today of $8.22, a slightly widening discount to Shanghai. But London is being pulled up by Shanghai. Chinese demand is sufficient to lift prices there, despite the slower rise in the gold price in London. This bodes well for more rises in London and New York.

Silver Market Morning: July 18 2017 - Gold and...

New York closed $2 lower than Shanghai’s close yesterday, with London opening today at a discount to Shanghai’s trading today of $7.10, the same discount to Shanghai we saw yesterday. But London is being pulled up by Shanghai. Shanghai in turn was pulling back today from its high as the Yuan strengthened, bringing Shanghai’s gold price to the same differential as it had yesterday.