• Gold: 1,250.43 0.25
  • Silver: 16.82 0.01
  • Euro: 1.138 -0.000
  • USDX: 96.01 -0.34
  • Oil: 44.89 1.2

Silver Market Morning: April 12 2017 - Gold...

We were wrong about more consolidation yesterday. Consolidation is a very difficult process to gauge accurately in terms of timing. It is a process of demand matching supply to the point where a small sale or purchase can make the next move a strong one. We did not realize that this point was reached yesterday, suddenly. After all it has been several weeks since the gold price has been building up sufficient strength to effectively tackle overhead resistance at $1,260, the 200-day average. Yesterday saw it do so, when an ascending top breakout was confirmed technically.

Silver Market Morning: April 11 2017 - Gold firm...

The Syria strike by the U.S. has not heightened tensions between Russia and the U.S. as much as the markets first discounted. It appears that Russia is satisfied with chest beating without action, simply a warning that the U.S. will be met by force next time. If there is another gas attack soon the situation could deteriorate substantially. Meanwhile, the markets, as we thought they would have retreated to where they were before the missile strike.

The decline and fall of the EU

Without the UK, not only does the EU lose much of its importance on the world stage, but the Commission’s budget is left with an enormous hole. That is the decline. The fall is well under way, with capital flight significantly worse than generally realised, as a proper understanding of TARGET2 imbalances shows. Not only is the ECB running out of options, but without major support from Germany, France and Italy, Brussels itself faces a financial crisis. In a highly unusual move, Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan in a letter to his shareholders this week backtracked on his earlier pre-Brexit threat to move jobs from London, declaring that the problem is Europe itself.

Silver Market Morning: April 7 2017 - Gold leaps...

Overnight, the U.S. struck Syria with cruise missiles on President Trump’s order. The global political situation has degenerated, at least for now, causing gold to jump through the 200-day average. Will this hold? At first glance, we would think not, as it is not a cause for war between Russia and the U.S. simply a punitive strike, in response to the use of chemical weapons in what is more than a civil war in Syria. It is, to us, a long term middle east wide religious war between Shia [Assad/Iran, etc] and Sunni [rebels/Saudis, etc] sides of Islam set to continue for the foreseeable future.

Silver Market Morning: April 6 2017 - Gold still...

In Europe, Mario Draghi cautiously implied that the fear of inflation has passed and while risks remain to the downside he was more confident that growth across the E.U. economy is becoming positive. To us there are so many continuing risks in Europe that one needs to continue to question the future of the E.U. economy. What we did find somewhat disturbing in what he said, was that the more positive shape of the economy was due to two factors, monetary policy and the oil price fall.

Still Need To Be Cautious

Over the last week, I have been noting that the silver chart has been the most instructive as to how the complex is running right now. While we certainly broke out over the initial 18 level resistance cited last week, the rally has provided us with yet another possible pitfall, at least until the market proves itself.

Silver Market Morning: April 5 2017 - Gold...

The gold price is like a mirror for the different currencies and their financial systems. It is an inefficient market in that it does not reflect such on a day to day basis. It reflects the situation over time and has to contend with all sorts of interference from speculators, banks and governments. But, over time, it is an unbiased, accurate reflection of a nation’s financial condition through its exchange rate against gold.

Silver Market Morning: April 4 2017 - Gold rising...

With Shanghai closed yesterday and today, the gold price jumped up and away from support into the higher $1,250’s this morning. This was primarily driven by a nearly four and a half tonne purchase into the gold ETF. So many times, in the past, we have seen such points of inflection result in ‘bear’ raids. But this time it was the bulls which came in. And they came in with physical demand.

Econ 101 -- Silver Market Manipulation

I hope this helps you to understand the forces that are aligned against you as a silver investor. However, do not despair. No fraud can last indefinitely and no institution built upon a foundation of lies and deceit can stand the test of time. Instead, the day is coming where true physical price discovery will again prevail in the precious metals. What will that price be? I have no idea but I'm quite certain that it won't be $1250/oz for gold and/or $18.25/oz for silver.

Silver Market Morning: April 3 2017 - Gold...

More importantly, gold prices today will not see any Chinese demand. As a result today’s prices will not reflect global demand, only London and New York. While the chances of a fall in the gold price globally is higher for today and tomorrow, Wednesday should see Chinese demand return, if that happens.