COT Silver Report - February 12, 2016
The change in the outlook for US interest rates has probably put an end to the dollar's four-year bull run, it is clear that there is a growing likelihood of negative interest rates in the future, and the global banking system is no fit state to manage the potential challenges of 2016. This article walks the reader through the likely economic effects relevant to the future purchasing power of the dollar, and therefore prospects for the gold price.
It’s Wednesday morning at 8:30 AM EST – just after Janet Yellen’s prepared remarks were released, ahead of her 10:00 AM EST “Humphrey-Hawkins” semi-annual Congressional testimony. They haven’t yet been published on Zero Hedge, although they’ve certainly been disseminated – and gold’s initial reaction was to modestly rise; which is a very good sign, as such appearances have been “key Cartel attack events” for as long as I can remember. Of course, the day’s young yet – so don’t be surprised if the Cartel attacks in the coming hours, trying to convince the world the Fed is in control, financial markets are undervalued, and Precious Metals’ year-starting surge was just a “flash in the pan.”
Resource stocks are not well understood by the general investing public, but at least two things are soon going to become very apparent to most - precious metal prices are rising as the U.S. dollar collapses, and that the best way to leverage yourself to rising silver prices is owning the shares of a silver junior.
How much clearer can I be that we are already amidst the “Big One” – with NO CHANCE of turning back? And that, barring a global PPT miracle in the next 24 hours, the answer to the question I posed on Saturday – i.e., “will Wednesday be the long-awaited Yellen Reversal?” – is decidedly YES! Not that she’ll join the ECB and BOJ at negative interest rates at tomorrow’s Humphrey-Hawkins Congressional testimony, of course. No, that will come shortly thereafter; perhaps, at an “emergency” session – in the coming months (or weeks), depending on how successful said PPT efforts are.
Gold researcher Ronan Manly shows today that last month's strange smash in the new London silver price fix, which disagreed so sharply with simultaneous spot and futures prices, resulted from the failure of the fix's managers to keep a promise made 18 months earlier to arrange wider participation in the fix and central clearing of trades based on the fix. Manly's analysis is headlined "The LBMA Silver Price -- Broken Promises on Wider Participation and Central Clearing"
Coming up we'll hear from Keith Neumeyer, CEO of First Majestic Silver Corp. Keith updates us on the state of the mining industry, how ridiculous and ultimately damaging the futures market has become, and why he believes the possibility of triple digit silver is NOT ridiculous. Don't miss a fantastic interview with Keith Neumeyer, perhaps the most outspoken leader in the entire precious metals mining industry. But first, this week's market update.
Gold and silver bugs of course are excited, as they look at it as the prices of the metals going up $55 and 72 cents respectively. The collapse of what most think of as money—including especially said gold and silver bugs—is great fun and profitable. At least if you’re short the dollar.
Those following me closely know I never attempt to “call” the Precious Metals bottom. Nor, more broadly speaking, when manipulative control of not just gold and silver, but the rapidly thinning veneer of “stability” the powers that be have cast over economic trends and financial markets, will be (permanently) destroyed. However, in the past three weeks or so, I have decidedly changed my tune – in no longer stating that it’s “coming”’; but to the contrary, that this point has been reached – NOW.
Silver finally managed to push through its upside resistance just above the $14.50 level this week and attracted some additional upside follow through as the US Dollar weakness brought on the macro trade ( Dollar down – BUY commodities). For that matter copper also rallied, as did platinum. Clearly the latter two metals are not moving higher based on signs of increasing demand but rather because of those macro trades just referenced. It is purely a matter of money flows related to the movements in the foreign exchange markets, especially considering that fact that the preference in the markets at the moment is generally RISK AVOIDANCE.