COT Silver Report - April 24, 2015
Precious metals continued their consolidation this week, with gold drifting off $10 to $1195 as of last night, and silver by $0.42 to $15.85. Intra-day trading ranges are relatively tight with buyers of physical metal on the dips and sellers of paper contracts capping rises.
Excepting short term price performance, physical silver is often referred to as either the ‘good news metal’ or the ‘bad news metal’. It’s the ‘bad news’ metal because, like gold, in times of a currency crisis it behaves more like a hedge against currency debasement or as a monetary asset.
The “fair value” of gold for 2015 is approximately $1,527, based on my empirical model for the price of gold back to 1971. The model is NOT a timing model, but is a valuation model that uses 3 macro-economic variables (not gold or silver) to calculate a “fair” value for gold. The statistical correlation between the smoothed annual price of gold since 1971 and the model projection is 0.98. It works, is logical, and projects much higher prices in the years ahead.
The silver market is broken and has been broken for a long, long time. Much longer than most people think although many people can finally SEE the problems with the market now as the paper market continues to distort the price of physical silver. It is silver derivatives and computer trading models introduced in the 1970's that really started to distort the market value and it has never been more distorted than it is today. Hundreds of Billions of silver derivative ounces are transacted by the bullion banks every year to steer and control the price of silver. This volume of silver trading dwarfs the tiny physical silver market that only provides a few hundred million ounces of physical silver to the market annually for investors to buy.
It’s Tuesday morning, and the way things are going, this bronchitis could be with me for some time. Fortunately, I can still type – and think. However, clinically speaking, I am “light-headed” due to my inability to breathe normally. And thus, while you’ll still get the gist of my thoughts this week, they may be a bit “jumbled” at times.
The US government has annual income of approximately $3 Trillion and official debt in excess of $18 Trillion. This does not count other liabilities such as Fannie and Freddie, and massive unfunded liabilities. But assuming “only” $18 Trillion in debt (optimistic) the US has the same ratio as a family with $60K income and $360K in credit card debt.
In the investment world, there’s no such thing as a sure thing, and if anyone tells you they have such an investment, you should run the other way. Fast. But sometimes, the odds are so clearly stacked in one direction that it comes pretty close.
How committed is the Miles Franklin Blog to guiding you through the unprecedented, global economic collapse that accelerates with each passing day? Well, I currently have a horrific case of bronchitis – to the point that I can barely speak, and spent much of the past 48 hours at rest. However, I still posted my rebuttal to Harry Dent’s “deflation sensationalism”; and here I am Monday afternoon, with a broad litany of “horrible headlines,” propaganda, and market manipulations to expose.
With the last remaining company finally releasing their year-end results, my top primary silver miners lost a combined $1.9 billion in net income in 2014. Two-thirds of the group reported significant write-downs (impairments), while the two of the largest companies suffered the highest losses.