COT Silver Report - November 21, 2014
Silver is down 70% from its high of $48.70 an ounce back in April of 2011. And the calls from the mainstream are for silver prices to fall farther, as the Federal Reserve has stopped printing paper money and inflation is nowhere in sight. I beg to differ.
After the huge take-down in the price of silver on October 31st, demand for Silver Eagles skyrocketed. Then on Nov. 5th after silver was knocked down another 5%, the U.S. Mint suspended sales of Silver Eagles.
According to this chart, the Fed’s favorite “inflation barometer” – the “five-year forward five-year inflation expectations index” – has fallen to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis; you know, when oil was $40/bbl. and no one bought anything, as a cumulative “deer in headlights” syndrome engulfed the world. Quite amazing , considering U.S. stocks – which theoretically, should be the worst performing assets during deflation – are at (nominal) all-time highs; as well as high-end real estate, rare art and other “1%” assets.
If this was a decade ago, the merger of Baker Hughes and Halliburton would dominate my attention, as I covered them like blankets from 1995-2005. Every move they made, every step they took, I was watching them, writing of them and adjusting my multi-thousand line “earnings models.” In other words, I was as devoted to oilfield service then as I am to precious metals now; only now, not is my career committed to gold and silver and significant amounts of my free time – but my life’s savings as well.
I mentioned earlier that I wanted to revisit the current GOFO rate situation and also the huge anomaly which occurred on the COMEX not once, but two days in a row to end last week. I have written several times regarding "GOFO" which is the lease rate for London gold. The last time I did this was back in May of this year, rather than writing another explanation I will copy and paste what was written then. I will comment further after the May missive below...
Gold and silver look like they have bottomed – again. Perhaps this time it will be a real bottom instead of another fake-out like December 2013 and June 2014. Demand is strong for physical gold and silver, but the supply of naked paper shorts on the COMEX is even larger. This will change. I see prices under $20 as a strong buy zone since I believe that $100 silver is only a few years away.
Major, major tremors in the global financial system; and ironically, the epicenter of the “Big One” may well be Switzerland. This tiny nation, most famous for its neutrality, is on the front line of the “Gold Wars”; and as we wrote in yesterday’s “call to the Swiss,” its eight million people have the opportunity to slay the evil banking Empire with just four million or so votes. Then again, the best things often come in small packages; and the worst, too, like, Cyprus – a nation of just one million, which itself caused momentous shock waves.
It has always fascinated me to hear the mainstream's interpretation of the gold standard. The great majority - including many who are part and parcel to the financial elite - elicit a knee-jerk response to its mere utterance.
The U.S. Fed’s announcement in October that it was ending quantitative easing capped a tough month for precious metal producers. The news triggered another wave of selling in gold dropping under $1,200 and silver falling even more aggressively to under $16. The fall only compounds challenges for producers whose third quarter results already show stress from the metal prices.