Silver Market Morning

Gold Today – The gold price closed at $1,298.30 in a $13.40 rebound on Friday, in New York. In Asia and London it was being lifted strongly to $1315.00. London was closed so we watch to see just how New York will play gold. The euro stood at $1.3874. Ahead of the opening of New York, gold stood at $1,311.65 and in the euro at €945.65.

Silver Today – The silver price closed at $19.45 up 39 cents on Friday, in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening, it was trading higher at $19.62.

Gold _{(very short-term)}

We expect the gold price to consolidate, testing overhead resistance, today in New York.

Silver _{(very short-term)}

We expect the silver price to consolidate overhead resistance, today in New York.

Price Drivers

Chinese demand and short covering in New York sent gold to the top of its trading range ahead of London’s Fixing. If gold goes over $1,320 it could prove explosive. Otherwise it will consolidate in this area above $1,300. How strong was this move up in New York and Asia? There were sales of 2.732 tonnes from the SPDR gold ETF and 0.03 tonnes from the Gold Trust. Their respective holdings now stand at 782.852 tonnes and 164.02 tonnes. These were not enough to restrain the gold price. We watch to see New York today, as it is clear that the gold price is reflecting SPDR gold sales against Chinese demand. It is a foregone conclusion as to which one prevails, but the question that remains is when? [For more on this, subscribe to www.GoldForecaster.com and www.SilverForecaster.com and visit www.StockbridgeMgMt.com to hold gold out of reach of potential confiscation]

Across in the E.U. Portugal is likely to follow Ireland in exiting the ‘bailout’ rescues of their government debt. Does this mean the Sovereign debt crisis in the E.U. is over? On the surface all seems to be getting better, but the low growth, low inflation threat that could turn into deflation is a growing threat that could turn the E.U. back into crisis mode. It is even possible that we could see action this week, when its Governing Council meets in Brussels. This weekend saw a lowering of growth prospects to 1.7% down from 1.8% and the inflation rate at 0.8% down from 1.2%. Action needs to be taken if deflation is to be deflected.

But it is the exchange rate of the euro that is the target of the E.C.B.’s efforts. This remains stubbornly high at $1.3874 and is threatening growth. So efforts that are interpreted as weakening the euro will be positive for gold.

Ahead of the auspicious gold-buying holiday of Akshaya Tritiya, price premiums paid by jewellers to importing banks more than doubled to $110 per ounce over London cash prices from $40 per ounce seen two weeks prior. We do not now expect an announcement on the easing of gold import restrictions in India until after the elections which are scheduled to end on 12 May.

Silver – The silver price is moving up with the gold price now and should accelerate ahead of it, in the rise we are seeing now.

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters