Investor demand is responsible for much of this accelerated rally. This year alone, exchange-traded funds have increased their gold holdings by more than a quarter to surpass 106 million ounces, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, taking the total value to almost $200 billion. Silver holdings have climbed 40%, to more than 850 million ounces. In the futures market, net managed money long positions are climbing back toward levels seen at the end of 2019.
Silver has risen almost 100% since its recent lows. And there's potential for much more. But it is the most fickle and frustrating of metals – it could hit $100 an ounce, or it could send you bankrupt. Dominic Frisby ponders which is more likely.
Silver’s surge has been getting an added boost from supply concerns and optimism about a rebound in industrial demand. Holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by the metal are at a record, while gold ETF holdings rose the most since mid-June on Tuesday and also sit at the highest ever.
“In the early stages of the precious metals bull market, gold leads the way with silver being pulled up slowly by the rising gold price,” said Peter Spina, who is president of GoldSeek.com and SilverSeek.com, providers of news and analysis for the precious metals. “At a certain point, the relative value of silver versus gold gets more noticed and investors start to accumulate the ‘poor man’s gold’.”
Peaking at 100 in the global economic recession of 1991, the ratio shot through that level this March, topping at 125 ounces of silver per 1 ounce of gold when the Coronavirus shutdowns of global economic activity saw the gray metal – which finds over half its end-demand from silver's industrial uses, against less than 1/10th for gold – plummet to the cheapest since 2009, down below $12 per ounce.
Silver prices have touched their highest level in six years, encouraged by low interest rates on other long-term assets as well as hopes that the industrial metal will be a winner in the “green recovery” promised by politicians. The price of the metal rose as much as 6 per cent to $21.17 an ounce on Tuesday afternoon — the highest in intraday trading since July 2014
In other forecasts, Citigroup was bullish on silver and palladium on a six-to-12 month view. Silver is expected to rise to $25 an ounce over that period on sustained investment demand and a recovery in global growth.
Strategists at Credit Suisse have noted a great silver performance lately and expect the white metal to look for the $26.22 resistance on a break above $21.14. What’s more, Gold/Silver ratio shows the latter is in line to extend its outperformance.
“Silver continues to push its way higher and there are seen clear similarities between price action now and that of gold last year. However, only above 19.65/21.14 would see a multi-year base confirmed, with next resistance then…