Silver Market Morning

Gold Today – In Asia the gold price held at Friday’s New York close level of $1,689.00. The euro was slightly off at €1: $1.3323 at the start of business in London. Gold then Fixed at $1,688.00 and in the euro at €1,269.078 .The euro was slightly weaker at €1: $1.3301. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was $1,689.25 and in the euro at €1,269.73.

Silver Today – Silver held at New York’s close at $31.92. Ahead of New York’s opening silver stood at $31.90.

Gold _{(very short-term)}

We do not see a strong move in New York today as the gold price continues to trade in a narrowing trading range, but we do expect a strong move, either way shortly, in New York today.

Silver _{(very short-term)}

Silver remains on the front foot and is pointing to a further strong move upwards, but will wait for gold before it does, in New York today.

Price Drivers

Gold & Silver – The market moods in so many markets is mixed at the start of the week on the day of the inauguration of the U.S. President for his second term. We see him being much more confrontational with the Republicans in his second term. But will the Republicans back off, or will they too become more confrontational? We do see more heightened drama spilling into negative reactions in the economy but giving the dollar a poorer performance. This will support the gold price as far as U.S. demand affects the gold price.

In China demand is growing alongside the acceleration of the enrichment of the middle classes there.

In India, we do expect to see a fall-off in the selling of scrap gold. This alone will accelerate gold imports. So Asian demand will provide a positive impact on the gold price, we feel.

In the light of the repatriation of gold to Germany, we expect to see other developed world central banks follow suit. Likewise other emerging central banks will do the same, we expect. With the European signatories of the Central Bank Gold Agreement having agreed not to enlarge their leasing activities in 1999, it may be that the pressure to call in leased gold is not as great as it would have been. We note that the U.S. Fed did not agree to limit its leasing, nor did the Bank of Japan. To what extent they may be forced to go into the market to buy gold to fill any gaps made by leasing is uncertain.[Subscribe to our newsletters at www.GoldForecaster.com and www.SilverForecaster.com to get a fuller analysis of this event].

Silver – Silver’s robust price performance continues and favors the upside.

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters