Silver Market Morning

Gold Today – The gold price closed at $1,317.50 up $3.50 on Monday in New York. In Asia prices rose a dollar. In London, the Fix was set at $1,323.00 up $9.50 and in the euro at €971.437 up €4.419, while the euro stood stronger at $1.3619. Ahead of the opening in New York the gold price was trading at $1,324.10 and in the euro at €972.07.

Silver Today – The silver price closed at $20.88 up a dollar 8 cents, in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening, silver was trading at $21.07.

Gold _{(very short-term)}

Gold should continue to rise, in New York today.

Silver _{(very short-term)}

We expect silver to continue to rise with gold, in New York today.

Price Drivers

There were purchases of 2.222 tonnes of gold into the SPDR gold ETF in the U.S. on Monday. The Gold Trust holdings remained the same. The holdings of the gold ETFs stand at 785.106 tonnes in the SPDR gold ETF and at 163.20 tonnes, in the Gold Trust. We see this and other purchases as confirmation of changing U.S. attitudes to go. Leading U.S. analysts are recommending gold be bought now.

Gold and silver are holding newly gained ground in thin trading. Normally, thin trading would be followed by falling prices, but when the trend has turned up then the process of “drifting up” would continue until selling came in. We have seen U.S. ETF buying in the last day and expect U.S. demand to be picking up as developed world market ‘buy on the rise’ as the Technical picture dictates.

The North and Northwest of Iraq appears to be securely in ISIS’ hands and the Kurdistan region has Kirkuk and is likely to keep it free from ISIS whose eyes are on securing their gains before moving into a full war with the Shi’ites. We are hearing that Iran will not be stopped if it sends troops into Iraq to secure Shi’ite areas. This places the bulk of Iraq’s oil in Iranian hands [3 million bpd] which, if they decide to use this as a means to remove U.S. pressure on them would move the oil price to $140. If the situation in Iraq deteriorates as ISIS wants, then we expect a full scale sectarian war of the very worst kind possibly spreading throughout the Persian Gulf. In that environment not only will Iran seek to utilize the bulk of Iraq’s oil for its own benefit [to pay for its input into the war?] This makes the oil price virtually uncontrollable. In this environment gold and silver will rise much more. [Subscribe www.GoldForecaster.com - see www.Stockbridgemgmt.com to protect yourself from penalties from holding your gold overseas when it is to be confiscated].

The foreign exchange market is remarkably calm with the dollar tending easier. We believe that this must make the E.C.B. unhappy as they want to see the euro much weaker and it will get there. If the oil price rises much further we will see greater volatility in these markets. If not then this tranquility will last until one or more countries break ranks and raises interest rates. Then that country’s exchange rate might well move disproportionately.

Silver – Silver will continue moving tightly with gold as it penetrates overhead resistance at higher levels. [www.SilverForecaster.com]

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters