Silver Market Morning

Gold Today – The gold price closed at $1,296.80 down $3.80 on Wednesday in New York. In Asia and early London, prices fell to $1,294 as the euro continued to slip to $1.3391. The gold price was Fixed at $1,295.00 down $2.50 and in the euro at €966.923 down €1.505, while the euro was weaker at $1.3393. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading at $1,295.10 and in the euro at €967.43.

Silver Today – The silver price closed in New York at $20.62 up 2 cents. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $20.70.

Gold _{(very short-term)} We expect gold to consolidate in thin trade still, in New York today.

Silver _{(very short-term)} We expect silver to consolidate, in New York today.

Price Drivers

There were no sales or purchases to or from the SPDR gold ETF or from or into the Gold Trust on Monday. The holdings of the gold ETFs stand at 801.844 tonnes in the SPDR gold ETF and at 165.66 tonnes in the Gold Trust. [Subscribe www.GoldForecaster.com – ensure your gold will not be confiscated and you not penalized -see www.Stockbridgemgmt.com ].

The dollar continues to rise against other currencies and will do so throughout the year, then accelerate its fall when the E.C.B. announces Euro style quantitative easing. Meanwhile, there is a tussle between New York markets trying to take gold down with the euro, but the gold price is refusing to fall so far. Trade remains thin. The gold & silver markets are seeing a balanced market once more with strong demand below $1,300, which fades above that price. But we are moving to a point where they will jump one way or the other strongly.

With the announcement of second quarter growth reaching 4% came a mixture of relief that growth is strong and doubts about such growth. Many say this was a ‘catch-up’ number on the negative growth in the first quarter leaving annualized growth at 1%. We have said for 7 years that a real recovery will see the ‘consumer’ feel secure in his job, have money to spend and see his house price rising. We remain a long way away from that point still. The Fed Funds rate remains unchanged at a range of 0.0% to 0.25%. It is notable that credit card interest rates are at record high levels. Consumers are struggling as new jobs are, in the main, part-time, they have moved across to renting, not buying in general and have learned a thriftiness that will not be lost until much rosier days are here. These are not in sight currently.

The Fed announced that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources while the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2% has diminished. Besides the subtle changes, the FOMC statement for July remained largely unchanged and intact from the June statement. The Fed ‘tapered’ a further $10 billion from its Q.E. program leaving only $25 billion to go.

Silver– Because silver is mainly traded in the U.S. it is holding its ground whereas gold is being shoved around by dealers trying to make it fall as the dollar rises. [www.SilverForecaster.com]

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters