Silver Market Morning

Gold Today – The gold price closed at $1,282.40 up $6.20 tonnes on Tuesday’s level in New York. In Asia and London, gold prices jumped to $1,285 as the dollar strengthened as the euro slipped $1.3178. The gold price was Fixed at $1,285.00 down $1.50 and in the euro at €974.962 up €0.2, while the euro was weaker at $1.3180. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading at $1,286.30 and in the euro at €975.76.

Silver Today – The silver price closed in New York at $19.40 up 2 cents. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $19.50.

Gold _{(very short-term)} We expect gold to consolidate, in New York today.

Silver _{(very short-term)} We expect silver to consolidate, in New York today.

Price Drivers

There were sales of 1.496 tonnes from the SPDR gold ETF and none from the Gold Trust on Tuesday. The holdings of the gold ETFs stand at 797.093 tonnes in the SPDR gold ETF and at 165.96 tonnes, in the Gold Trust.

Premiums on the gold price in India have jumped to $8 - $11, just ahead of the first festival, on which it is auspicious to buy gold. In western India the festival of ‘Ganesha’ is about to be celebrated. With monsoons recovering fast there it is thought that demand will be strong for gold. This heralds the start of the ‘gold season’. In Europe we expect it to begin in early September as holidaymakers return to work and buying ahead of manufacturing jewelry for the year end starts. With the quiet season for gold [the Doldrums’] now ending, we look back and see the current level of the gold price is still $100 above the low and not far off the recent high, despite the low demand levels. As my daughters tell me, ‘it’s not rocket science’ to work out what’s coming.

As the fall of the euro is being controlled, so that we do not see ‘brutal’ falls in its exchange rate even though the falls may not stop until it is somewhere between $1.20 and $1.30 we expect the gold price to break away from the euro and rise in all currencies. Some may wonder at the activities of ‘arbitrageurs’ as they buy and sell between markets to even out prices. It is one of the most profitable of stock-broking activities and is a very low risk means of trading. By running a currency ‘book’ together with a gold bullion ‘book’ you are simply evening out prices internationally. The risk rises when gold rises in all currencies. This is when arbitrageurs back off and wait for quiet times when they resume their trades.

The Technical picture continues to look poor, but this could change quickly as the ‘season’ starts up. Investors should always temper this picture with distinctly different fundamentals.

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Silver– The silver price is marking time, waiting for gold but still fused to its path. www.SilverForecaster.com]

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters