The 3-year chart for silver shows that since the April - May 2011 blowoff top, it has been in a quite orderly major downtrend, and we can readily see that the downside target on failure of the nearby key support is defined by the lower boundary of this downtrend at about $20 - $21, which fits nicely with the next zone of major support arising from the extensive trading just below $20 in 2009 and 2010 coming into play as $20 is approached. From all this we can reasonably conclude that the downside target for silver on failure of the nearby support is about $20 - $21, although a vertical plunge may briefly take it below this level - if it does jump in with both feet, for this should be the final bottom, as QE is not off the table at all, just delayed.
The recent silver COT has been hugely bullish, although it didn't end up producing much of a rally. However, over the past couple of weeks it has gotten less so as the Commercials have started to build up short positions again - and it is suspected that early this week, after the unfavorable (for markets) Greek vote, they may well be piling them on ahead of the FOMC meeting this Wednesday. This does not augur well at all for the short-term. Nevertheless it is important to keep in mind that overall this silver COT is still strongly bullish, so the scenario that now looks likely is a near-term failure of support and plunge into what should prove to be a final bottom in the $20 - $21 area ahead of the major uptrend that will be activated by the mega QE that must occur to save Europe from collapsing into total chaos.