Gold Today –New York closed at $1,748.40 up nearly $20 on last week. This morning, Asian and London dealers held the price at yesterday’s levels of $1,748 ahead of London’s opening. It was Fixed at $1,747.25 down $3.25 on yesterday afternoon. In the euro it was Fixed at €1,349.540 almost the same as yesterday in very thin trading, while the euro was slightly stronger at €1: $1.2947. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was almost the same at $1,746.75 and in the euro at €1,348.63.
Silver Today – New York closed at $34.08 and slipped slightly. It then traded at $34.07 ahead of New York’s opening.
Gold (very short-term)
Gold is expected to consolidate, moved by the euro, with a weaker bias, in New York today.
Silver (very short-term)
Silver is expected to consolidate, moved by the euro, with a weaker bias, in New York today.
Price Drivers
Gold & Silver – At last Greece has its bailout and it government debt level is deemed to be sustainable, so E.U. leaders believe. Some media analysts expect a need to arise for a further debt write down in the future. A message coming through is that Greece must be seen to implement austerity measures, not simply to agree to do so. Our, “what if” is, what if the Greek economy continues to shrink? The Eurozone is. Nevertheless it was thought that the euro would strengthen and gold would rise in the dollar, but it hasn’t. We have rarely believed that the €: $ exchange rate reflected real values, simply the sum total on capital and trade movements at that time. This rate is not designed to reflect public opinion even when positive.
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Likewise the gold price should not be static in the euro. From the technical point of view we are watching to see if overhead resistance is turning back the gold price or not. The next few days will tell us which way it is headed from now on.
Indian demand is recovering to former high levels. Yes it is down from 969 tonnes last year but now sits over an expected 800 tonnes. Fears that it would drop to 640 tonnes this year have been corrected by lower Rupee prices and high festival demand. We would have been most surprised if it hadn’t because Indian demand is endemic to Indian culture more than it is in any country east of Greece, except China. It is a deep feature of Indian family life and tradition. Meanwhile China’s demand is continuing to rise and is expected to go over 1,000 tonnes in the next few years. Can the gold supply meet this demand?
Silver – The silver price is also still being moved as a counter to the dollar and riding tandem with the euro.
Regards,
Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters
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