Silver Market Morning

Gold Today – The gold price closed at $1,309.70 up 60 cents on Tuesday in New York. In Asia on Tuesday gold prices eased slightly to $1,307.50 ahead of the opening in London. The euro began to fall again and stood at $1.3368. The gold price was Fixed at $1,309.25 down $1.75 and in the euro at €980.418 down €2.341, while the euro was at $1.3354. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading at $1,308.90 and in the euro at €979.46.

Silver Today – The silver price closed in New York at $20.04 up 7 cents. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $19.95.

Gold _{(very short-term)} We expect little movement in gold as we wait for a strong move either way, in New York today.

Silver _{(very short-term)} We expect little movement in silver as we wait for a strong move either way, in New York today.

Price Drivers

There were no sales or purchases into or from the SPDR gold ETF or the Gold Trust on Tuesday. The holdings of the gold ETFs stand at 795.859 tonnes in the SPDR gold ETF and at 165.93 tonnes, in the Gold Trust.

The gold price is doing what we forecast and may well continue doing this into September. It is possible that an event such as an invasion of the Ukraine or some surprising new economic ‘shock’ could cause the gold price to move strongly either way, before then. The market remains thin and vulnerable to minor pressures but the fundamentals remain positive for both silver and gold. [Subscribe www.GoldForecaster.com – ensure your gold will not be confiscated and you not penalized -see www.Stockbridgemgmt.com ].

Prior to the introduction of sales tax in Japan there was a big jump in Japanese growth. Now that it has been introduced the Japanese GDP has shrunk a massive 6.8%, but many expect growth to finally come in at 1.6% growth for the year. We feel that this is playing games with reality to reassure people. A deeper look at the Japanese economy with another boost to sales tax on the way leaves us unconvinced that Japanese growth is soundly based. Despite all the efforts in the media to convince us that all is well, we see 2015 as an uncertain and likely unstable year.

In India, we were surprised yesterday when a minister in the new government of Modi came out and said that the country’s gold import duty should be eased as it not only impeded the gems and jewelry industry, but it has also led to a spike in illegal gold imports. Now this has been evident to all since last year, but a minister in the new government saying this raises expectations that duties will be lowered to the point that smuggling is no longer profitable. We guess this to be down from 10% to around 3%. Perhaps such expectations will lower wholesale demand now, but should a reduction come in, then Indian demand will jump. If the 80%-20% rule is not eased with it, then smuggling will continue to meet demand.

Silver– The silver price will follow gold as an investment not an industrial metal. [www.SilverForecaster.com]

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters