Silver Market Morning

August 17, 2012

Gold Today –New York gold closed at $1,614.00 up $9.90. Asia and London whipped it up to $1,618.45 early in the London day. Gold was Fixed at $1,616.50 up $13, as the euro stood at €1: $1.2328. In the euro it was Fixed at €1,306.052 nearly the same as yesterday morning. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was steady at $1,617.29 in the middle and in the euro at €1,307.64.

Silver Today – Silver in New York closed at $28.19 after which London took it to $28.28 where it stood just ahead of New York’s opening.

Gold _{(very short-term)}

Gold should have a steady to stronger bias, today in New York.

Silver _{(very short-term)}

Silver should have a steady to stronger bias, today in New York.

Price Drivers

Gold & Silver – The euro continues to hover either side of €1: $1.22 as the Eurozone crisis drags on. Today Angela Merkel is reported as confirming Germany’s commitment to the euro causing the euro to rise slightly against the dollar. Initially, the gold price moved up against both the dollar and the euro by $13 and €4 respectively but at the all-important Gold Fix in London it was Fixed in the euro at nearly the same price as yesterday.

It is important to look past the day to day picture and see the overall scene for gold and silver. In gold the World Gold Council reported this week that the European purchase of bullion bars and coins rose 15% in the last quarter, confirming that a growing number of European investors are sceptical of the resilience of the euro and for that matter the U.S. dollar. After all, the history of Europe testifies to gold keeping its value when push comes to shove. With the Eurozone crisis now several years old, confidence in the euro is weak. Angel Merkel has to do more than simply confirm her confidence in and commitment to the euro.

The WGC particularly highlighted Russia will continue to be a driving force in the gold market. It is now the fourth largest consumer of gold jewelry, and has the world's eighth largest gold reserves. It continues to add to its gold reserves on an ongoing basis. But then more and more central banks from a diverse spectrum of countries are doing so too. The drop in Indian and Chinese demand in the last quarter does not tell us that their view of gold has changed. It simply tells us that they did not buy as much as before, last quarter. That may well change next quarter. [To follow our weekly commentary, please subscribe to our newsletters at www.GoldForecaster.com and www.SilverForecaster.com]