Technical Scoop: Job Divergence, Gold Leap, Bull Life

Excerpt from: Technical Scoop: Job Divergence, Gold Leap, Bull Life

Gold and silver

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Have gold and precious metals bottomed? This week was quite encouraging. The results of the U.S. election seemed to give gold a boost as it ended a three-week losing streak and put in its best week since August. Yes, gold fell about 0.5% on Friday, but silver and the gold stocks did not. Gold leaped 4.8% on the week and silver was up 5.5%, but it was the gold stocks that really shone. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) was up 13.5%, and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) rose 15.7%. The rally in the gold stocks was so good that both the HUI and TGD are once again positive on the year.

We had noted previously the divergence between the gold stocks indices and the metals gold and silver. Both gold and silver made fresh lows for the move down since January 2026 but the HUI and the TGD did not. Indeed, they were above their recent lows and performance-wise they have generally outperformed gold and silver. Since the top in January 2026 to the recent low, gold lost 31%, silver was hammered, down 60%, but the HUI fell 41% and the TGD only 38%. But that was the July low. At the more recent low the HUI was down 35% while the TGD was off 32%. That’s higher lows, even as gold and silver made lower lows. A strong performance for the gold stocks, which normally would have seen 70% drops when gold fell 30%.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

The result is we are encouraged that gold may have seen its low. Now we enter a more positive seasonal period for gold and silver. But hold on – we are not out of the woods yet. Indeed, we would not be surprised that we continue a choppy pattern until the December 8–9 FOMC and the interest rate decision. Gold still fears higher interest rates and expectations remain for the moment that the Fed will hike at its next meeting, especially after the bullish jobs report. As long as we make no new lows, the set-up could be into the Fed period before we really start to rise.

On the charts, gold failed to hit that downtrend line while silver remains in what looks like a huge descending wedge triangle (bullish). The breakout point for gold is above $4,400, but we’d prefer above $4,500 to confirm a low. For silver, that is above $60 but regaining above $70 would confirm the low. The TGD pattern is different and a breakout above 900 would be positive and especially above 1,000. What’s key is that the low near 750 holds on any further pullback. We like the odds.

A gridlocked U.S. government is good, and turmoil will continue in the U.S. And, as noted, with Trump still in charge of foreign policy, a restart of the U.S./Iran war could also be positive for gold. We are reminded that Trump even at 30% approval still has over 50 million believers. Another reason for market turmoil is the ongoing turmoil in the EU, particularly France, where we could see some flight of capital, especially if the rhetoric vs. Russia amps up further. Capital flight could in turn be positive for the U.S. bond and stock markets, as well as for gold/silver and the gold stocks.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

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Copyright David Chapman 2026

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