All the pieces are falling into place for silver’s bull market to accelerate, with a breakout into the $40s now looking increasingly likely in the near term.
I rely heavily on intermarket analysis when evaluating the outlook for precious metals—especially the U.S. dollar, which has a well-established inverse correlation with gold, silver, and other commodities.
I’ve held a bearish view on the dollar since the beginning of the year, and that thesis has played out well, helping to lift precious metals across the board—including platinum and palladium.
Yesterday offered a textbook example of this dynamic in action. Gold jumped 1.43% and silver surged 1.98%, both driven higher by renewed dollar weakness—largely a result of falling Treasury yields.
In this update, I’ll break down where gold and silver currently stand—placing special emphasis on silver, which, as I outlined in a recent in-depth report, is now firmly in the grip of a strengthening bull market.
Let’s start with COMEX silver futures, which I track closely due to their tendency to respect key $1 increments—often forming well-defined support and resistance zones.
Silver’s bull market truly kicked off in early June, when it finally broke above the stubborn $32–$35 resistance zone that had capped gains for over a year. I viewed that breakout as a clear signal that silver had entered a new phase—one where it’s beginning to assert itself and catch up to gold after lagging behind for much of the previous year.
After that breakout, silver consolidated for about a month before launching another strong move higher on July 11th—adding further confirmation of the emerging bull market. Yesterday's surge has only strengthened that case, with silver now rapidly closing in on the $40 mark.
Now let’s take a look at silver’s long-term monthly chart to identify past resistance clusters that are likely to serve as price targets during this new bull run. These resistance zones were formed during periods of price congestion, most notably during silver’s surge and peak in 2011 and 2012.
The two most prominent levels that stand out to me are the $42–$44 zone and, ultimately, the $48–$50 zone. There is a strong probability that silver will aim for the most obvious target — $50 — during this rally.
And while it will likely pause to consolidate once it gets there, there’s no reason it has to stop at that level.
I’ve also developed a proprietary indicator called the Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI), designed to help validate silver’s price action and filter out potential false breakouts. The SSPI is calculated as the average of gold and copper prices, with copper scaled by a factor of 540 to prevent gold from dominating the index.
Interestingly, even though silver isn’t part of the calculation, the SSPI closely tracks its movements.
In early July, the SSPI finally broke out of its 2,800–3,000 trading range—where it had been stuck since March—thanks to strength in both gold and copper. This breakout was a promising signal that foreshadowed the silver rally I had been anticipating and served as one of the key confirmations I had been waiting for.
In addition, another bullish signal emerged yesterday in the SSPI, which broke out of a pennant pattern that had formed in recent weeks—indicating further upside momentum ahead for both the index and silver itself:
Helping to propel both the Synthetic Silver Price Index and silver itself was copper’s breakout earlier this month above the key $5.00–$5.20 resistance zone—a level that had capped prices for several years.
As I explained previously, this breakout likely marks the start of a new bull market in copper, which should also provide strong tailwinds for silver.
Gold has been consolidating in recent months, digesting its earlier gains—a normal and healthy pause, especially during the low-volume summer period when Wall Street activity slows.
It’s currently trading between $3,200 and $3,500, and my outlook remains to watch for a high-volume breakout above $3,500 as confirmation that the bull market is resuming. Such a move would give silver an additional boost as well.
In case you missed it, I recommend reading my recent updates outlining why gold is likely headed toward $4,000—and how continued appreciation in the euro should help propel gold out of its current trading range and toward new all-time highs.
As a long-time silver bull who invests in physical bullion, I’m also highly enthusiastic about silver mining stocks. These are leveraged plays on the price of silver and have historically delivered exceptional returns during silver bull markets.
I’m increasingly optimistic about their prospects and see clear signs that this sector is poised to heat up in the near future.
I use the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) as a useful proxy to track the performance of silver mining stocks. SIL broke out of a long-term triangle pattern a few months ago, which is a bullish development.
However, a decisive close above the key $48–$52 resistance zone is still needed to fully confirm that the bull market in silver mining stocks is truly underway — and we’re getting very close.
Junior silver mining stocks, as measured by the SILJ ETF, are finally perking up but remain confined within a long-term triangle pattern that dates back to 2013.
Once this pattern decisively breaks to the upside, I believe silver mining stocks—especially the juniors—are poised to surge in a truly spectacular fashion.
As I noted at the beginning of this update, yesterday's strong performance in precious metals was driven largely by a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar, which fell 0.63% on the U.S. Dollar Index.
Because gold and silver tend to move inversely to the dollar, this kind of weakness in the greenback typically serves as a tailwind for precious metals—and that was clearly the case yesterday.
The U.S. Dollar Index’s recent break below the key 100 level established a clear downward bias that remains intact—despite the modest rebound since early July.
Naturally, markets don’t move in straight lines, but the broader momentum for the dollar is still firmly to the downside. That remains my current bias and outlook, which should continue to provide support for both gold and silver.
To summarize, even though we’re deep into the dog days of summer—when trading volume is light and many financial professionals are away on vacation (I recently returned from a wonderful multi-week tour of the Southern United States)—it’s encouraging to see both gold and silver holding up well.
It’s also gratifying to watch many of the outlooks I’ve laid out in recent updates play out as expected.
Silver, in particular, appears poised to break into the $40s—a move that’s likely to finally grab the attention of mainstream retail investors who dismissed it at lower levels. That surge in interest would be a major boost for those of us who held our ground while silver was struggling and largely forgotten.
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