2025 was quite the year for precious metals. What does 2026 have in store for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium?
Last year, gold rose by over 64 percent, setting 53 new record highs along the way. Silver gained just under 148 percent. Platinum’s price increased by 125.9 percent. Palladium was up just over 80 percent.
There were multiple factors driving metals higher, including persistent inflation, uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade and foreign policy, concerns about the long-term outlook of U.S. debt, the ongoing weaponization of the dollar, shaky economic data, and a global trend toward de-dollarization.
Metals Focus projects that many of these dynamics will persist into 2026.
“Looking ahead, we anticipate further price upside across the precious metals complex, as persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support portfolio diversification. For the white metals, U.S. tariff uncertainty and favorable underlying fundamentals are likely to provide an additional boost to prices.”
The following is a brief overview of the likely trajectory of precious metals in 2026, based on analysis by Metals Focus. This London-based independent precious metals consultancy specializes in gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and rhodium markets.
Gold
After ending 2025 with a significant correction from over $4,500 to as low as $4,330, gold rebounded to kick off 2025, moving back close to the all-time high of $4,550 hit on December 26.
Despite increased volatility, Metals Focus remains bullish on gold this year with highs rising “well above” $5,000.
“In essence, the underlying drivers, which drove the gold rally during 2025, will remain in place this year.”
Metals Focus specifically cites regime uncertainty in the U.S. as a factor that will continue to support gold.
“Since the start of the Trump 2.0 administration, the abrupt and often unpredictable nature of U.S. policy moves has remained a key driver of sentiment towards gold.”
The organization also expects worries about economic health to support the yellow metal, along with continued monetary easing.
This is probably one of the biggest factors driving gold higher. Despite elevated inflation, the Federal Reserve has cut rates multiple times and pivoted back to quantitative easing. This is, by definition, inflation.
President Trump will choose a new Federal Reserve chair this year, and that individual will likely be more favorable toward loose monetary policy than Jerome Powell.
According to Metals Focus, “Even if the Fed’s cuts are less aggressive than markets currently anticipate, the fact that these are still coming will continue to provide support.”
“Layered over this are worries about persistent fiscal deficits, the rapid accumulation of U.S. debt, and questions surrounding the Fed’s independence. These factors raise doubts about long-term debt sustainability and, by extension, the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.”
Metals Focus also expects central bank gold demand to continue supporting the gold market.
Central banks globally have increased their gold reserves by over 1,000 tonnes for three straight years, and the World Gold Council projects that 2025 will be the fourth.
2024 ranked as the third-largest expansion of central bank gold reserves on record, coming in just 6.2 tonnes lower than in 2023 and 91 tonnes lower than the all-time high set in 2022 (1,136 tonnes). 2022 was the highest level of net purchases on record, dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971.
To put that into context, central bank gold reserves increased by an average of just 473 tonnes annually between 2010 and 2021.
Gold recently overtook U.S. Treasuries as the top global reserve asset. Metals Focus projects, “U.S. action in Venezuela and President Trump’s aggressive stance towards Greenland, for example, are likely to underpin ongoing de-dollarization."
The higher price will potentially create some headwinds in the gold market.
“We do not see much support from other gold fundamentals, given record prices. Even with firmer retail investment, shrinking jewelry consumption, rising recycling, and increased mine production will lead to a growing market surplus. In keeping with 2025, this surplus will be readily absorbed by strong institutional investment, which will therefore help to drive much of the price upside forecast for this year.”
Silver
The same macro dynamics driving gold higher should also support silver in 2026. While much more silver demand comes from industrial offtake compared to gold, it remains at the core a monetary metal and tends to generally track with gold over time.
Because of its significant industrial demand, the silver price tends to be much more volatile than gold. Metals Focus anticipates some price pressure early in the year due to profit-taking and liquidations linked to index rebalancing.
While Metals Focus analysts think there could even be a deep correction, they anticipate it will be relatively short-lived.
“We expect a recovery to soon emerge, with silver poised to achieve new all-time highs.”
Along with the geopolitical and macroeconomic factors already highlighted for the gold market, the silver market has one overwhelming dynamic driving it forward. There simply isn’t enough metal.
Silver demand has outstripped supply for four straight years, and the Silver Institute projects that 2025 will be the fifth. The structural market deficit came in at 148.9 million ounces in 2024. That drove the four-year market shortfall to 678 million ounces, the equivalent of 10 months of mining supply in 2024.
We’ve seen an ongoing silver squeeze develop in recent months. It started when metal moved from London to New York, driven by tariff worries. The displacement of metal, coupled with surging Indian demand, set off the first squeeze in October. That drove the silver price over $50 for the first time.
Metal flowed back to London, but that didn’t solve the underlying problem. While shuffling silver between London, New York, and India took the immediate pressure off the market, it didn’t magically create new silver, and it didn’t take long for silver squeeze 2.0 to develop. That briefly pushed the price over $80.
Metals Focus expects the metal shortage to persist as demand remains robust.
“Physical liquidity in the London market is likely to remain tight in the coming weeks, driven by strong investment demand, tariff uncertainty keeping substantial silver stocks in the US, refining capacity bottlenecks, and a structural deficit. Given silver’s smaller market size, these factors may well amplify price movements, with a three-digit peak looking likely this year.”
Metals Focus does expect some demand pressure at the higher price.
“Following silver’s exceptional price gains, efforts to reduce silver usage in the industrial space are expected to accelerate. That said, the impact of these demand losses is likely to be mitigated by continued strong investment demand.”
Platinum and Palladium
The platinum group metals have virtually no monetary demand. However, inflation also provides price support for these metals.
Platinum broke out of an extended period of range-bound price performance last year.
South African flooding disrupted platinum mining, exacerbating tight physical supply. On the demand side, surging gold prices incentivized Chinese jewelry manufacturers to rotate to platinum. This added to growing industrial demand.
In one of the most significant shifts in the platinum market, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) launched platinum futures in late November. Metals focus expects the move to open up the market to a wider range of investors.
Like silver, the platinum market is functioning at significant market deficits. Supply fell short of demand in 2023 and 2024, and the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) projects a market deficit of around 848,000 ounces in 2025, with another supply shortfall expected this year.
Metals Focus forecasts several factors will push and pull the platinum market this year.
“Automotive demand is expected to ease modestly; jewelry demand too will slip, while industrial consumption expands, led by glass, chemical and hydrogen-related applications. Retail investment, especially in China is forecast to show healthy growth. Following the strong price gains of 2025, some consolidation is likely. However, the re-basing of the market following the opening of the GFEX is expected to support further upside in 2026, with prices forecast to rise sharply, as liquidity and participation deepen.”
Metals Focus also expects the palladium price to continue an upward trajectory, at least through the early months of 2026, with the metal possibly retesting $2,000 per ounce before moderating later in the year.
One of the factors driving the palladium market was U.S. Section 232 trade measures (import restrictions the U.S. government can impose when the Department of Commerce finds that certain imports threaten to impair U.S. national security) and Russian anti-dumping policies.
Metals Focus analysts think these concerns will ease as the year progresses.
“As we expect Section 232 and anti-dumping concerns will move toward resolution, nervousness is expected to fade, leading to a 10–20 percent price correction by year-end.”
However, analysts also project demand will be stronger than previously expected.
“The decline in automotive demand will moderate, helped by signs of reverse substitution back toward palladium as its price advantage to platinum grows.”
About the author
