Silver Market Morning

Gold Today –Yesterday the gold price in New York fell to $1,232.30 down $5.70 with the dollar steady at $1.3623: €1. Today the gold price was Fixed at $1,225.50 down $11 on yesterday. In the euro it Fixed at €902.502 down €5.422. Ahead of the opening in New York gold stood at $1,226.00 and in the euro at €902.333. The dollar stood at $1.3586: €1

Silver Today –The silver price 18 cents lower at $19.87. Ahead of New York’s opening, it was trading at $20.10.

Gold _{(very short-term)}

We expect the gold price to consolidate with a weaker bias today, in New York.

Silver _{(very short-term)}

We expect the silver price to consolidate with a weaker bias today, in New York.

Price Drivers

On Monday there was an attempt to fracture the gold price as COMEX sales of over 4,000 contracts [1.2 tonnes of gold] in one minute knocked the price back to $1,212, but in a very short period of time the price recovered fully. Another attempt was made yesterday but with thinner volumes over a longer period. Neither of these two sales came with sales of physical gold. This tells us that the price is well supported at these levels and psychologically strong. It will take substantial sales of physical gold to change this picture. Certainly, support above $1,200 is getting stronger, but overhead resistance at $1,240 - $1,250 is heavy. With this in mind, yesterday saw no sales from the SPDR or Gold Trust gold ETFs, whose holdings remain at 794.621 tonnes and 161.83 tonnes respectively.

In the developed world we continue to get positive economic data indicating that growth is improving slightly. But there are so many structural dangers to such growth that could impinge on hopes that developed economies are ‘out of the woods’. Nevertheless, equity markets in that world are positive, primarily encouraged by low interest rates [which could persist for years more].

We repeat what we said in the past that, rising equity markets are not counter to gold prices. Yes, in the U.S. institutions have sold gold to invest in the equity markets there, but outside the U.S. there has been no similar selling of gold. Should interest rates begin to rise, equity markets will fall, as will economic growth alongside foreign exchange rates. This is a time bomb with the Fed dictating when it will go off.

For those who feel that gold will not rise until ‘Hell freezes over’, we note that yesterday, ‘Hell’ [a town in Michigan] froze over.

The case for gold in portfolios in markets outside the U.S. remains intact. It is in these markets that global gold demand is in the region of 75% of all global demand. [Find out more from www.GoldForecaster.com and www.SilverForecaster.com to subscribe to our newsletters and visit www.StockbridgeMgMt.com to hold gold so it can’t be seized]

Silver – The silver price was quick to drop as gold fell yesterday and may well fall faster than gold today.

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters