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Silver Market Morning

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,196.30 up $4.60 before Asia took it up to $1,199. The euro rose slightly to $1.2490 with a wide spread. In London gold rose and the gold Fixing was set at $1,199.00 down $0.25 and in the euro, at €962.357 up €2.112 while the euro was half a cent weaker at $1.2459. Ahead of New York’s opening gold was trading in London at $1,198.10 and in the euro at €962.18.


Silver Today – The silver price fell disproportionately to $15.74 down again by 38 cents, in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $15.87.


Gold (very short-term) The gold price will consolidate, in New York, today.


Silver (very short-term) The silver price will consolidate, in New York today.


Price Drivers

We wait to see if the phrase, ‘for a considerable time’ [before interest rates are lifted] is removed from Janet Yellen’s statement today. If this is the case we believe bond and equity markets will discount the time when rates are raised, to their detriment. Savvy investors we talk to are still long of equities, but know turbulence is here. In the main, U.S. traders/investors are mainly out of gold, so their only next move is to buy. It is a question of when?


There were 1.793 tonnes of gold sold from the SPDR gold ETF but none from the Gold Trust yesterday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 721.564 and at 161.44 tonnes in the Gold Trust. These sales are still too small to impact the gold price.


Once again, the ‘bear-raid’ on the gold price was repulsed. Today sees prices where Asia will buy around $1,200. The quick retreat by bears and the settling of the price around $1,200 is more evidence that trader’s and speculator’s power over the price of gold is weakening and Asian demand growing in influence over that price. We have seen a series of ‘bear-raids’ over the last two years most of which have been successful in taking gold down from $1,650 to $1,137. But each raid in 2014 has seen a diminishing rate of success. In the last few weeks traders and speculators have hit the gold price at the quietest time of day in the 24-hour market. The one that took gold down to $1,137 was short lived because there was no physical selling to hold it down. This week’s raid was even more short-lived for the same reason. This is positive for the gold price going forward as we are becoming more and more convinced that the ‘bottom’ is in for gold. There may be more ‘bear-raids’ but we see them having limited success.


We believe that holders of gold in the Ruble are getting close to taking their profits and should rather hold their gold in the Yen, thereafter. While the Ruble could fall further, the fundamentals don’t warrant such moves. But speculation or panic has a way of going too far, so any further fall could well be an expression of just that. The Ruble is at 67 to the dollar. With the U.S. tightening sanctions this week too and the oil price still falling, more falls could come. [Subscribe to &]


Silver– The silver price is heavily oversold, waiting to see if gold can hold or rise.


Kind Regards,


Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters


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