Technical Scoop: Ceasefire Breaks, Gold Consolidates, Oil Reacts

Excerpt from this week's: Technical Scoop: Ceasefire Breaks, Gold Consolidates, Oil Reacts

Gold and silver

Source: www.stockcharts.com

The gold bugs must be frustrated. Since this war started in February, gold has gone nowhere. In between, there have been some sharp ups and downs sparked mostly by higher bond yields and a rising US$ Index. Both are anathema to owning gold. We’ve rallied off the lows, only now to run into resistance as we suffered a down week. Gold remains down 16% from its all-time high seen in January. Grant you, gold is still up 48% over the past year. Many would be more than happy with that return.

This past week gold fell 2.9%, silver dropped 6.6%, and platinum fell 4.7%. Palladium was off 4.5% while copper fell 0.8%. The gold stocks were hit with the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) down 6.3% and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) down 6.1%. Both platinum (-1.4%) and palladium (-7.0%) remain down on the year. Like oil, gold appears to be event-driven by the ongoing conflict between the U.S./Israel/Iran. War on, gold falls; war on hold, gold rises. Then there is the Israel/Lebanon/Hezbollah war. Israel and Lebanon talk ceasefire, but Hezbollah does not appear to be a part of it.

A record low for the Michigan Sentiment Index left gold unmoved, although Friday was an up day for gold. Gold was also unmoved by the possibility the next Fed chairman will be Kevin Warsh. Given rising inflation, it will be difficult for any Fed chair to cut interest rates. Nonetheless, gold and silver and the gold stocks (HUI, TGD) seem to be caught betwixt and between. It’s no surprise that the RSI is neutral. So, despite the ups and downs of the past two months, we are essentially going nowhere. We await breakouts. That means gold above $5,100 for starters, silver above $90, and the TGD above 1,000. Preferable is gold above $5,400 and silver above $96. In the interim, pullbacks must see gold hold above $4,200 and silver above $60/$65.

This has been a tough time to be a gold bug. But as the gold bugs know, we’ve been through this before. Many are pointing to $6,000 gold, even up to $10,000. They may eventually be proven correct just as targets of $5,000 proved correct. But in the interim their dreams are on hold. That said, all conditions point to higher prices. Typically, we see lows for gold in June/July. Gold bugs will have to be patient.

Source: www.goldchartsrus.com

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Ceasefire Breaks, Gold Consolidates, Oil Reacts

Copyright David Chapman 2026

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