Gold and silver

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After a strong up week the previous week, gold prices consolidated this past week. Gold rose 0.8% this past week while silver was up 1.9%. Platinum was flat while palladium fell 4.6%. Copper continues to make all-time highs but closed off that high, up 0.5% on the week. The gold stocks continued their rally with the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) up 1.9% and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) gaining 0.3%. Nothing spectacular, but nonetheless there was follow-through to the upside. That’s a positive.

Debt, debt, debt. That’s a driver for gold. The U.S. debt is approaching $40 trillion. Given they are running annual deficits of roughly $2 trillion annually, it could only take another five years, and we’ll be at $50 trillion. Will global markets allow that to happen unheeded? Not likely. Central banks continue to raise gold reserves at the expense of adding U.S. debt. In June, central banks added 51 metric tonnes and in 2026 to date they’ve added 345 metric tonnes. But gold is under-owned by the public, making up only 3% of financial assets. Central banks are buying. The public doesn’t understand what is going on. They view it as a trade or a doomsday asset, not as a strategic core asset. India has the highest percentage of people owning gold. The North American public lags far behind. The largest minable reserves lie in Russia and Australia.

Technically, gold still awaits a breakout over $4,500 to suggest a move to the next level. A breakout over that level could suggest a target of over $6,000. Silver awaits a breakout over $70 and then targets could become as high as $136.

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Source: www.stockcharts.com

The gold stocks appear to be leading. The Gold/HUI ratio has fallen from 6.8 in July to 5.7 last. The HUI is now up 9.4% in 2026, the TGD up 8.7%, while gold is up only 1.4%. Gold in Cdn$ is up 2.4% in 2026 as the Cdn$ has strengthened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. Silver is still down in 2026 by 9.1%. The big leader we’ve noted is copper, up 16.9% in 2026. Gold follows copper. The gold/silver ratio eased again this past week in favour of silver. The expectation is that silver and gold stocks lead gold (the metal).

We have entered a positive seasonal period for gold, and we appear to be rising on cue. This can last into late September or October before another pullback gets underway into December. Then follows the strongest period for gold into March. There are some crazy targets out there for gold. We tend to note them, but many appear to be pie in the sky. One step at a time. Let’s get over $4,500 first.

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Source: www.stockcharts.com

Currencies were also subdued this past week. Weak retail sales hurt the US$ Index as it pulled back but still managed a 0.1% gain in the week. The Cdn$ rose 0.5% while the euro was up 0.1%. After a big bounce following BOJ and U.S. Treasury intervention, the Japanese yen fell 1.1% this past week. Is another intervention coming?
Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Possible Inflation, Golden Sign, Oily Football

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers. The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security. Every effort is made to provide accurate and completeinformation. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary. David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks. Although Artificial Intelligence (AI) may be deployed from time to time, AI output is monitored and adjusted, if necessary, for accuracy. David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated. Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.