Silver Market Morning: Dec 9 2016 - Gold and Silver holding their ground!

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,172.40 yesterday after closing at $1,173.00 on the 7^th December. London opened again at $1,170.00 today.

Overall the dollar is stronger against global currencies today.

- The $: € was slightly stronger at $1.0615: €1 from $1.0763: €1 yesterday.

- The Dollar index was slightly weaker at 100.11 from 100.14 yesterday.

- The Yen was weaker at 114.41: $1 from yesterday’s 113.65 against the dollar.

- The Yuan was weaker at 6.9033: $1 from 6.8805: $1 yesterday.

- The Pound Sterling was weaker at $1.2602: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2654: £1.

Yuan Gold Fix

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle Eat eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

Shanghai prices moved lower today despite more gold ETF selling in New York. Prices in Shanghai were $20.00 higher than New York and $22 above London’s opening [allowing for the difference in the quality of gold priced in the different markets].

With lower Shanghai prices and a weaker Yuan the story that government restraints on the import of gold appear to be ‘not credible’. The continuation of the very high discounts levels to Shanghai prices argue for U.S. gold sold to be arriving in China to satisfy demand there.

LBMA price setting: The LBMA gold price setting was at $1,168.90 this morning against yesterday’s $1,174.75.

The gold price in the euro was set higher at €1,103.05 after yesterday’s €1,088.79.

Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,164.25 and in the euro at €1,102.46. At the same time, the silver price was trading at $16.98.

Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.09 at New York’s close yesterday from $17.12 on the 7^th December.

Gold _{(very short-term)} The gold price is vulnerable, but will base-build on support, in New York today.

Silver _{(very short-term)} The silver price will continue to be sensitive to gold price moves to the upside or downside, in New York today.

Price Drivers

Because the focus of the gold market is now on the FOMC meeting next week and the subsequent announcement of the rate hike, we expect both gold and silver to ‘mark time’ until the Fed’s announcement.

2017 With China attempting, as fast as possible, sell off Treasuries, we are hearing reports that Saudi Arabia is doing the same. To us, this points to disenchantment with the U.S. policy expectations concerning the two nations and with the dollar’s future role in the global monetary system.

This brings into question future relations on oil pricing by Saudi Arabia. Are we seeing a prelude to the nation accepting other currencies [particularly the Yuan] in payment for oil or has that already happened? Whatever the case, such sales point to a weaker dollar in global foreign exchanges in the future, not just reflecting massive future increases in debt and the impact of rate hikes on the value of Treasuries. Another key question is, “are the proceeds of such sales staying in the dollar or moving to other currencies?”

If such Treasury selling continues for another 2.5 years, Chinese Treasury holdings will be insignificant to Chinese reserves. In that time we expect to see several currency crises, each favouring gold prices!

Shari’ah gold – With the clarification of the rules governing gold in the world of Islam, comes the potential for a huge increase in demand for gold in the Middle East. Before we think that this world of Islam was devoid of gold we should note that physical gold is held by most middle eastern central banks and institutions as well as individuals. So the rush to buy physical gold may well not be nearly as vigorous as most imagined. But with Islam having around 1.6 billion adherents, we do expect to see a rise in demand from that part of the world. We discuss this more in the latest issue of the Gold Forecaster. The main importance of this added feature to the gold market is that with gold demand and supply close to being in balance, added demand will have to impose upward pressure on the gold price.

India - With the ongoing cash debacle in India bringing the economy to its knees demand for gold has turned to smuggled gold where cash exists. Officially, demand has disappeared, but unofficial demand is stronger than ever, although no statistics will ever be available to quantify this. Once cash has become available again gold demand will recover quickly. Gold is being confiscated by the endemically corrupt bureaucrats working for government, reinforcing the desire for Indians to maintain their ‘black money systems’. We would be surprised if the Modi government can survive the mishandling of the country’s cash. Don’t think for one minute that Indians are leaving gold as their key investment. Attempts to confiscate gold from owners will simply place the government against its middle classes.

Gold ETFs – Yesterday, there were sales of 2.965 tonnes from the SPDR gold ETF and sales 0f 0.63 from the Gold Trust holdings, leaving their respective holdings at 860.706 tonnes and 198.03 tonnes.

Since January 4^th this year, 257.757 tonnes of gold has been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust.

Silver –Silver is trying to failing to hold its ground above $17.00, so the metal may become volatile today.

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips

GoldForecaster.com | SilverForecaster.com | StockBridge Management Alliance To ensure you can benefit from the future higher gold prices we will see then, you need to hold it in a manner that makes sure it can’t be taken from you. Contact us at admin@stockbridgemgmt.com to buy physical gold in a way that we feel, removes the threat of it being confiscated. We’re the only storage company that offers that! – We’re Shari’ah compliant!]

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