Technical Scoop: Inflation Up, Oil Low, Gold Base

Excerpt from this week's: Technical Scoop: Inflation Up, Oil Low, Gold Base

Gold and silver

Source: www.stockcharts.com

A question asked by many is, why isn’t gold rising in the current environment? Well, there are a few reasons. Interest rates have generally been rising, while the US$ Index has been strengthening. Geopolitical events tend to see a rush for the U.S. dollar, although that may be ending. A desire for liquidity has had institutional investors selling gold for cash to cover losses and other costs. That turns gold into a liquid asset rather than a safe haven asset. With inflation rising, it potentially lowers thoughts of a Fed rate cut. That’s not good for gold.

Despite all that, gold rose for the second week in a row with a gain of 1.6%. Silver fared better, up 4.4%. Platinum gained 2.8%. Of the near precious metals, palladium rose 1.6% and copper jumped 3.4%. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) was up 4.6% and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) rose 4.4%. Except for palladium, all are up on the year, led by the gold stock indices HUI +20.6% and TGD +19.7%. A good week for gold.

Gold is approaching the 50-day MA resistance near $4,900. Above $5,000 things start to improve, and above $5,250 new highs become probable. Silver is at downtrend line resistance and approaching the 50-day MA at $80. Above $80 and especially over $90 things are looking up again. Over $107 new highs become probable. Gold has support now down to $4,600, but under $4,400 new lows could loom. Silver’s support is at $66.50, but under $66 things start to get dicey.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

The gold stocks have rebounded off their lows. The TGD has gained 27% from its recent lows while the HUI is up about 26%. Still, they have further to go to suggest new highs. The TGD must break over 1,035 and the HUI over 915. Note how the gold stock indices made new highs, even as gold and silver made lower highs but then joined gold and silver in making new lows for the move. Critical support for the TGD is at 875; under 800 spells big trouble.

For the HUI, support is down to 750 but under 700 new lows loom. We remain positive on the gold market. This has been a sharp correction typical of what we’d term fourth waves. The question is, when does the low come in? Backing and filling and retest of the lows cannot be ruled out. Typical bottoms for gold and silver are usually in the June/July period. We remain firmly in a positive phase of cycles for gold. We measure three waves up from the low in November 2022. The next major low shouldn’t come until 2029–2031. The fifth wave up could be the best yet. First, however, we need to find the low of the current correction.

So far, gold like the stock market has responded positively to the potential for a ceasefire. Gold is also responding to a lower US$ Index this past week. However, the risks remain for gold, given the need for liquidity, a stronger US$ Index, rising interest rates and inflation, and the ongoing war in the Middle East.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Inflation Up, Oil Low, Gold Base

Copyright David Chapman 2026

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