Technical Scoop: Jobs Surprise, Gold Waver, Wars On

Excerpt from this week's: Technical Scoop: Jobs Surprise, Gold Waver, Wars On

Gold and silver

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Gold prices were not happy this past week as the larger than expected job numbers took a bite out of gold. But, make no mistake, gold prices and by extension silver prices and the gold stocks are headed higher. Rising bond yields do not appear to be the bugaboo they used to be.

Since the end of the gold standard in August 1971, gold has been through three significant bull markets: 1971–1980 that saw gold rise 1,850%; 2001–2011 where gold was up 632%; and since 2018 to the present where gold has gone up 240%, although it was higher at the peak in January 2026. Usually, when we see bond yields rise, gold falls. But since 2022 that equation has flipped. First, Western governments seized $630 billion worth of Russian assets. As a result, gold buying by some major central banks, emerging market central banks, and sovereign funds accelerated. They rose from 5–7% of reserves to 11% today. For some it is even higher.

The U.S. has the world’s highest reserves of gold at 8,133 metric tonnes, representing some 71%–81% of its reserves. However, the U.S. only values its gold holdings at $42.22/ounce. China has been increasing its holdings of gold reserves while shedding its holdings of U.S. treasuries. But gold reserves only represent some 7–8% of its total reserves. China last holds 2,346 metric tonnes of gold. The world’s largest reserves of gold are in Russia and Australia, both estimated to hold roughly 12,000 metric tonnes. But total reserves are limited and the world is estimated to only have about 15–20 years of proven, economically recoverable reserves.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

This past week, gold fell 0.7%, silver was off 0.4%, and platinum dropped 0.3%. Palladium wavered, down 1.3%, but copper continued to climb, up 0.6%. Copper remains the leader and is pointed higher. The gold stocks wavered but were not crushed as the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) was off 0.9% and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) fell 1.1%. We continue to need silver and the gold stocks to lead the upward parade.

Gold broke over $4,500 resistance but so far has failed to build on it. Now we need to break above $4,700 to suggest higher. Above $5,200 new highs are possible. For silver, we stalled near the 200-day MA, so we now need a firm break above $72 to suggest higher. Above $106 new highs are possible. Similarly, for the TGD, as both the HUI and the TGD have outperformed so far, we need to break above 1,050. The TGD has already taken out 1,015 where new highs are suggested. The TGD is forming what looks like a fan pattern. Once above that third fan, we should start to move higher.

For gold, we need to see it hold above $4,200, silver above $62, and the TGD above 875. The outlook for gold and silver and the gold stocks remains bullish. Helping is the continued faltering of the U.S. dollar. The US$ Index fell this week, despite the stronger job numbers. USDX was down 0.5%. A big winner was the Japanese yen, up 2.5% as intervention once again from the BOJ was seen. However, we don’t have any evidence they were drawing on their Fed facility whereby they can borrow U.S. dollars against collateral of U.S. treasuries and then use those funds to purchase yen. Rising interest rates in Japan are putting considerable pressure on the BOJ and potentially forcing the unwinding of the massive yen carry trade.

The reality is, there is too much debt in the world. Its growth is unsustainable and potentially a real threat for a financial crisis of major proportions that could force the Fed and the other central banks into their biggest save of the financial system ever, paling what they did in 2008 and 2020. Can they do it? That’s questionable. Hence, own gold, which is indestructible, irreplaceable, and has no liability. Here in North America funds and individuals are holding only about 3% gold in their positions. The percentage is higher for the EU and Asia.

Source: www.stockcharts.co
Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Jobs Surprise, Gold Waver, Wars On

Copyright David Chapman 2026

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