Technical Scoop: Sticky Inflation, Bessent Intervention, Gold Bobble

Excerpt from this week's: Technical Scoop: Sticky Inflation, Bessent Intervention, Gold Bobble

Gold and silver

Source: www.stockcharts.com

It’s probably discouraging as to why gold prices do not appear to be rising, even as the geopolitical picture worsens, inflation is still present, domestic politics are deeply divisive and debts and fiscal deficits are mind-boggling. Yet here we are at around $4,350, well off the January 2026 high of $5,608. A correction was overdue given that gold rose from that 2022 low gold rose almost 250%. The last leg from May 2025 saw gold rise 74%.

Now we are some 22.5% below that January 2026 high.

Fear of rising interest rates has hurt gold. Gold doesn’t pay interest. The U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose from 4.14% in January 2026 to 4.97% today. The benchmark 2-year Treasury note rose from 3.50% to 4.63%. U.S. inflation is at 3.40%. A stronger US$ Index through 2026 has also hurt gold prices. Investors get a real yield on notes and bonds vs. inflation. That the Fed might tighten by hiking interest rates also doesn’t help.

The result was that from January to July gold prices were weak. Despite the recent rebound, we have now pulled back from the recent high at $4,697. Gold appeared to be on the cusp of breaking out, but the gains have not held and we have pulled back. As long as we can stay above $4,200, we should be okay. Below $4,100 suggests we could see new lows below $3,940.

This past week gold fell 1.8%, silver dropped 2.7%, and platinum fell 1.5%. Of the industrial metals and near precious metals, palladium fell 6.3% while copper made new highs, then turned tail and closed down 1.7%. Copper fell because of threats by the Trump administration to put tariffs on copper. Copper prices are up 107% from a low in 2022. The huge needs for copper, coupled with underinvestment when prices were low, ensures copper prices should keep climbing. However, this is a setback. Trump tariffs that were threatened were pulled back so we await to see if copper prices rebound.

Copper is in a strong uptrend. There have been some sharp pullbacks along the way since 2022. Concerning is what appears as a wedge triangle forming. Wedge triangles are normally bearish. Breakdown occurs under $6.40. We do appear to be late in the triangle, so it is possible we will just waffle out. New highs would end any discussion of a breakdown.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Source: www.stockcharts.com

The silver chart continues to look bullish. We may have completed a five-wave decline from the January high in an ABCDE type of pattern. As with gold, we can’t tell whether the recent run-up is the start of new bull or a correction to the downtrend. Only moves above gold $5,200 and silver over $106 would suggest new highs ahead. We have some work to do. That copper has been a leader is positive as strong moves in copper often precede a strong move up in gold.

The gold stocks have continued to be good performers despite the recent pullback. They appear to be leading the way. This past week the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) was down 2.2% while the TSX Gold Index (TGD) was off 1.9%. Still, the two are up 16.0% and 17.3% respectively in 2026. That outpaced gold, up 0.8% and silver, down 9.5% so far this year.

The TGD has good support down to around 880. A breakout above what appears to be a fan pattern above 1044 would be positive and project much higher. We’d be concerned if we broke under 850. The juniors also suffered a bit of a pullback this past week as the TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX) fell 3.9%. Roughly half of the CDNX is made up of junior mining companies, mostly gold mining.

Overall, we remain positive and bullish for the precious metals sector. However, our next big move may not be seen until 2027. With the FOMC meeting this week on September 16, the expectation now is for a hike in interest rates. The surprise now would be that the Fed does nothing. That would be bullish for gold.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Sticky Inflation, Bessent Intervention, Gold Bobble

Copyright David Chapman 2026

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