Silver Market Morning

Gold Today –New York closed at $1,161.30 down$5.60 as the dollar continued to rise as the market remained dominated by currency issues. Asia lifted the gold price by $2 before London pulled it back to New York’s closing levels. London then Fixed the gold price at $1,158.75 down $2.25 and in the euro, at €1,096.056 up €16.658, while the euro was at $1.0572, down another nearly 2 cents. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,158.20 and in the euro at €1,090.43.

Silver Today – The silver price closed at $15.68 down 11 cents. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $15.57.

Gold _{(very short-term)} The gold price will look for a bottom in New York, today.

Silver _{(very short-term)} The silver price will look for a bottom, in New York, today.

Price Drivers

There were no sales or purchases of gold from the SPDR gold ETF or the Gold Trust on Tuesday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 753.037 tonnes and at 164.86 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

The gold price fall is due entirely to a rising dollar being discounted by arbitrageurs and traders adjusting prices to the changing exchange rates. As you can see above, the gold price rose strongly in the euro and fell only slightly in the dollar. The dollar index has now risen to 99.28 and we expect more rises to come. This is up from 96.80 last week.

But yesterday Asian physical demand increased in the market and held the price up around current dollar levels as the euro continued to fall. As the Indian Rupee continues to strengthen, gold in Rupees continues to fall, as you can see below. The gold price in Rupees is at levels that have not been seen for a long time. We are watching to see if there will be more Asian follow through, as we expect the euro to continue to fall against the dollar and the dollar continue to rise against the rest of the world’s currencies. The euro now stands against the dollar at $1.0594. If Asian demand does move in as expected the gold price in dollars is likely to recover strongly.

The report that HSBC is closing its Gold Vaults needs to be verified before we accept this. The reasons behind such a closure have nothing to do with the operation’s profitability, if these reports are true.

Apple’s gold watch at $10,000 a watch may well not meet demand expectations. Until we see sales over a quarter, we would not see this product having a marked effect on the gold price, yet.

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Silver– The silver price will continue to fall with gold but with Asian demand now coming in for gold, the silver price may well stabilize or recover quickly.

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Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters