Technical Scoop: Disruption Begins, Faltered Golds, Oil Up

Excerpt from this week's: Technical Scoop: Disruption Begins, Faltered Golds, Oil Up

Gold and silver

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Some are claiming that gold’s safe-haven status is over. Ever since the US/Iran war broke out, gold has fallen 12.6%. Oil has jumped almost 53% while the U.S. 20-year Treasury note yield is up 43 bp to 4.38% from 3.95%. Inflation has leaped from 2.4% in February to 3.3% in March. The S&P 500 is up 5.1%. None of this is good for gold. Inflationary pressures keep many believing the Fed’s hands are tied and they won’t lower rates. That’s also not good for gold. But central banks keep buying and that could put a floor on the price. This past week, thoughts that a breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran on a peace deal helped gold prices to rebound on May 1, 2026.

However, that didn’t help as gold ended the week down 2.0%, silver was down 0.7%, platinum fell 1.0%, palladium was up 2.1%, while copper fell 2.0%. The gold stock indices were whacked again with the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) down 7.6% and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) off 8.6%. Because silver outperformed this past week, the gold/silver ratio fell 1.3% in favour of silver.

Gold, silver, and the gold stocks continue in a corrective mode. We remain above the recent lows. So far, this has a look of a test of the lows. The RSI is neutral. Our expectation continues to be that gold will eventually break to the upside. But it has resistance to get through. First at around $4,700/$4,800 and then again at $5,000/$5,100.

Above $5,100 we should be breaking out. Above $5,250 new highs are possible. Seasonally, gold has strength from roughly June to September before a correction sets in, although the real gain may not start until July/August. Gold’s support is down to $4,300. Below $4,200 new lows become possible.

Silver is similar. A breakout occurs above $79 but we wouldn’t be looking at potential new highs until we break over $107. Silver appears to have good support down to $65. Below $62 silver is in trouble. Gold stocks, represented here by the TGD, have had a rough time. The TGD is down 25% from its all-time high, a bear market. At its recent worst, the TGD had fallen 50%. Notably, during the 2008 financial crisis, the TGD fell 61%. By the high in 2011 the TGD was up over 200% from the 2008 low. Similar observations were made for the HUI.

So, while this correction has been nasty, we’ve seen worse during a bull market. The conditions for gold remain solid and new highs will beckon once this correction is over. The only real danger is new lows; then we’d have to question the bull market. Until then, the bull remains intact, albeit currently wobbly.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Disruption Begins, Faltered Golds, Oil Up

Copyright David Chapman 2026

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