This is an exceprt on silver from a full report.
Source: www.stockcharts.com
As we noted, silver slipped a small 0.2% this past week. Silver appears to be in a nice bull channel. We will see if it can hold that channel even as gold might move lower. A breakdown under $15 would change that scenario and silver could fall to the $14.60 range. Technically, it made what could be seen as a double top at $16.20 and $16.19. If so, the breakdown under $15.44 suggested the potential to fall to $14.45. Currently the low is $14.98, but if that goes then $14.45 becomes a possibility. Only new highs would break this mildly bearish scenario. However, in the interim silver should follow gold higher, at least for the short term. New highs above $15.55 could suggest a move towards $16 once again but a more likely target zone is between $15.70 and $15.80.
Source: www.cotpricecharts.com
Like the gold commercial COT, the silver commercial COT gives some mild encouragement for higher prices. The commercial COT rose to 37% this past week, up from 36% the previous week. But note the rise was accomplished in a negative manner. Long open interest fell just over 1,000 contracts but short open interest fell roughly 7,000 contracts. The large speculators COT fell to 61% from 63%. But we note there that short open interest rose just under 5,000 contracts while long open interest was off only about 300 contracts. We consider the silver COT to be mildly bullish, but the fact that both long and short open interest fell makes us cautious.
Source: www.stockcharts.com
Like gold, the gold stocks are backing off from their recent highs. We note now that the TSX Gold Index may have made a small double top at 201.22 and 199.25. If so, the neckline is at 185 and a breakdown under that level could suggest a decline to around 170. We note there is considerable MA support in the 176 to 180 zone, but if we are going through a corrective period the likelihood is a decline through that level. We don’t believe we’ll see a major breakdown. But the potential of the double top is ominous, at least for the short term.
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