Technical Scoop: Tariff Retaliation, Mild Rise, Oil Spark

 Excerpt from this week's: Technical Scoop: Tariff Retaliation, Mild Rise, Oil Spark

Gold and Silver

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Gold continues in its corrective phase. At play this past week were the U.S.’s threats to bomb Iran and, at the end of the week, the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs. But in typical Trumpian fashion they appear to be ignoring the Supreme Court, placing a blanket 10% tariff (later raised to 15%) on the world in addition to whatever other tariffs are floating around. How that impacts some the of the deals the U.S. signed with countries (i.e., Japan, South Korea) is unknown. Also unknown, but with the potential to happen, is the return of the tariffs already collected although we wouldn’t hold our breath that will happen.

It’s a minefield for investors. Currency debasement, threats of war (geopolitical), more tariffs, uncertainty as to what the Fed will do in the face of stronger than expected job numbers, and inflation remaining stickily high all turns into a high stakes game. Gold responded by rising 1.0% this past week after trading lower earlier. Silver was up 8.7%, a good gain after a week or three of weakness. Platinum was up 5.0% while palladium gained 3.8% and copper was up 1.2%. All remain firmly to the upside for 2026.

Central bank purchases have slowed down a bit, but many are expecting them to ramp up again. Also, there is more investment demand as everyone is hesitant about the geopolitical and economic situation. It generates a lot of uncertainty and in that environment gold can flourish. Bitcoin continues to lose favour, falling 1.6% on the week, down over 22% in 2026 and down 50% from its all-time high.

An interesting story we picked up this past week is that some investors or a group of institutional investors are buying deep, out of the money call options on gold at strike prices between $15,000 to $20,000 with a December 2026 maturity. Spreads were also being used for the $15,000 and $20,000 strikes. Apparently, some 11,000 contracts have been executed. These are lottery ticket purchases, but some people are expecting extreme volatility to enter the market as the year progresses. That’s interesting, considering gold currently is at $5,000. They didn’t mention silver, but after silver hit a high of $121, some are expecting it to go to $200 next and the gold/silver ratio, currently at 60 (it has been recently as low as 44), to fall to the 20–30 range.

The question on our mind is: is the gold correction over? We’d like to see a clear ABC-type correction so that would suggest a test of the recent low or new lows under $4,400. Silver’s low was $64. Ideally, what you see on a test of the lows or new lows is that gold or silver makes new lows but the other doesn’t, a divergence and sometimes a signal we may have bottomed. New highs above $122 silver and $5,600 gold would end any discussions as to whether we are headed lower. But right now, we’ve been in a corrective mode, and we can’t say the correction is over just yet. The odds do favour an eventual breakout to new highs as geopolitical tensions heighten and economic conditions deteriorate. Oh yes, and sticky inflation. Gold remains the ultimate safe haven.

Source: www.stockcharts.com
Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Tariff Retaliation, Mild Rise, Oil Spark

Copyright David Chapman 2026

GLOSSARY

Trends

Daily – Short-term trend (For swing traders)

Weekly – Intermediate-term trend (For long-term trend followers)

Monthly – Long-term secular trend (For long-term trend followers)

Up – The trend is up.

Down – The trend is down

Neutral – Indicators are mostly neutral. A trend change might be in the offing.

Weak – The trend is still up or down but it is weakening. It is also a sign that the trend might change.

Topping – Indicators are suggesting that while the trend remains up there are considerable signs that suggest that the market is topping.

Bottoming – Indicators are suggesting that while the trend is down there are considerable signs that suggest that the market is bottoming. 

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers. The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security. Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary. David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks. Although Artificial Intelligence (AI) may be deployed from time to time, AI output is monitored and adjusted, if necessary, for accuracy. David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated. Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.