Technical Scoop: Volatile Chaos, Underrated Jobs, Wildfire Spark

Excerpt from this week's: Technical Scoop: Volatile Chaos, Underrated Jobs, Wildfire Spark
On the week, gold rose 2.3%, silver was up 4.1%, platinum and palladium showed some life, both up 5.0%, while copper gained 5.7%. A good week for the precious metals. Also great were the gold stocks as the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) rose 3.1% and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) was up 2.8%. Gold has been gaining on all the currencies as well, primarily due to the strength of the US$ Index. Gold in Cdn$ rose 2.1%, in euros up 2.9%, Swiss franc up 3.2%, pound sterling up 4.1%, and Japanese yen up 2.6%.

Gold still needs to regain above $2,740/$2,750 to suggest to us that we should see new all-time highs above $2,802. We thought we had completed a potential five-wave advance to the October high at $2,802. The subsequent pattern appears to have taken on the shape of an ABC flat correction. But only new highs above $2,802 can confirm the pattern. Next targets then could be $3,050, once they are through $2,802. We are always reminded that gold does have some positive seasonals during this time, usually topping out during the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) annual get-together on March 2–5.

But gold rising against a strong jobs report, rising bond yields, and a rising US$ Index we have to view as positive for higher prices.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Like gold, silver had a good week. With a gain of 4.1% this past week, silver outpaced gold. Silver is now up 7.1% in 2025 vs. gold up 2.8%. That is a positive development as we need to see silver leading if we are to go higher. But the reality is silver is a lot further from telling us we should see new highs than gold is. We believe we have to break above $34 to suggest new highs above the October high of $35.07. We also have downtrend line resistance just above at $32.00. The 50-day MA stopped our advance this past week. Other encouraging signs were the higher low we saw on December 31 that was above the one seen on December 14. Despite the good week and start to 2025, silver still lags. Gold is within calling distance of further new all-time highs. Silver, on the other hand, still seems a long way from $50 and the highs of 1980 and 2011. On an inflation-adjusted basis, we’d have to reach $67 to equal 2011 and $175 to equal the 1980 high. A lot of work to be done. Support is down to $29.50 with interim support at $30. We could be forming an ascending triangle, so a breakout over $35.50 could project us up to $44.00. Interim stop would be at $39/$40.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

We suppose we should be encouraged by the rise in gold stocks so far in 2025. So far, they’ve been the big winners with the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) up 6.5%, including the 3.1% gained this past week, and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) up 6.7%, including the 2.8% gain this past week. That’s encouraging, but don’t get too excited just yet, as there is resistance above, first at 375 for the TGD and then at 400 and 415. Above 400, new highs could be seen. The all-time high set in 2011 remains at 455. Because of inflation, we’d have to get to 610 to equal that lofty level. We did break a small downtrend from the October high so that is encouraging. But we note we stopped this past week at the 100-day MA. The recent low at 332 should hold on any pullback with interim support at 340/345. The pattern is encouraging as we see gold stock prices (TGD and HUI) going higher.

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Volatile Chaos, Underrated Jobs, Wildfire Spark

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David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers.  The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security.  Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary.  David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks.  David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated.   Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.