Technical Scoop: Jobs Up, Gilded Break, Oily Fall

Excerpt from this week's: Technical Scoop: Jobs Up, Gilded Break, Oily Fall

Gold and silver

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Gold caught a break this past week. First there were the soft job numbers that came out Thursday. Lower energy prices helped ease inflation concerns. The US$ Index slipped on the lower jobs and energy numbers. And finally, it seems less likely now that the Fed will hike interest rates. Put it all together and gold rose this past week by 1.3%. Silver did better, up 3.7%, while platinum gained 0.5%. Of the near precious metals, palladium was up almost 5.0% while copper was disappointingly flat. The gold stock indices were up with the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) gaining 2.1% and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) doing better, up 4.1%. In all, the gold market broke a four-week losing streak.

Yes, we are still down on the year with gold off 4.4%, silver down 14.4%, and platinum off 20.5%. Only copper is up 8.5%. The HUI is down 4.9% while the TGD is off 1.4%. That the gold stocks are holding in well suggests we may be approaching a bottom here. Naturally, bottoms need confirmation. Gold needs to take out $4,400. Better still, it needs to break above $4,700. Above $4,800 and we are fully confirmed for a bottom. Silver needs to take out $65, but above $75 we have a confirmed low. The TGD above 900 is improving considerably while the HUI above 750 is looking up.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

We are encouraged by silver making a lower low, even as gold made new lows. A divergence? The TGD also made a higher low, although the HUI joined gold in making small new lows. Momentum has slowed sharply. At one point all – gold, silver, HUI, and TGD – saw the RSI dip under 30 oversold. $4,000 is proving to be a key support zone for gold while silver is seeing support near $56. We could consider silver’s low as a test of the old highs near $50 that were seen in 1980 and 2011.

A lower US$ Index, continued low oil prices, fears of a Fed interest rate hike abating, are all positive for gold. As well, evidence suggests that central banks are still buying. The only fly in the ointment we see is that long bond yields ticked higher this past week, but gold didn’t appear to react to that. There are signs that the gold stocks are once again being accumulated, including the junior gold miners that trade primarily on the TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX).

Many analysts, ourselves included, have viewed this drop as an overdue correction following the huge run-up in gold prices from 2022 to the top in January 2026 where gold leaped 247%. A 30% correction shouldn’t be a surprise. The bull run lasted just over two years. This correction has been on for about six months. An encouraging divergence: while gold fell 30% and silver was down 54% the gold stocks were actually underperformers with the HUI down 37% and the TGD off 33%. In previous sharp correction, a drop between 50% and 75% was not unusual for the HUI and TGD. We consider that another positive divergence.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Signs for the most part are positive. Gold stocks are once again being accumulated. Investors should note.
Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Jobs Up, Gilded Break, Oily Fall

Copyright David Chapman 2026

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