Technical Scoop: War Spark, Signature Energy, Precious Life

Excerpt from this week's: Technical Scoop: War Spark, Signature Energy, Precious Life 

The claim by Pakistan is that Iran/U.S. have agreed on a text for a deal that could get the Strait of Hormuz open once again. But then there are ongoing contradictory statements from both Iran and the U.S. Then we note that both Iran and the U.S. are still exchanging fire, despite a so-called deal in the works. So, which is it?

According to trackers, President Trump has declared that a peace deal is imminent at least 38 to 40 times – only to have the war renew once again, regardless of a ceasefire or that a deal is imminent. For investors, it is totally confusing and the reflection in the market is to watch oil prices collapse, only to regain and gold soar, and then to collapse once again. The stock market also responds, but its focus is on IPOs.

This past week oil fell, but gold barely recovered after falling earlier in the week. This past week gold fell 2.3% but silver rose 0.5%. Platinum was down 3% but palladium jumped 4.7% and copper prices were up again, gaining 3.7%. The gold stocks rose with the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) up 1.2% and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) gaining 0.9%. With silver outpacing, the gold/silver ratio fell 2.8% to 62.0.

What made this an interesting week was that gold made new lows for the move, but silver did not. The gold stocks (HUI, TGD) also made new lows for the move. This could be an interesting divergence if the relationship can hold and signal that a potential low is at hand.

Also encouraging from our standpoint is that copper prices are rising and gold and copper usually go hand in hand. Right now, gold is lagging as copper challenges all-time highs. The suggestion is that gold should rise again with copper. Given supply constraints for copper, we put less stead towards copper falling in sympathy for gold.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Following the all-time high at $5,608 in January, the pattern for gold that has unfolded appears to us an ABCDE-type of correction. Silver that topped at $121.64 has followed the same pattern, as have the HUI and TGD. What we are seeing is that we may have made a low and completed the E wave down. Naturally, this is not confirmed, so making a pronouncement when we have no confirmation is just speculation.

To confirm, gold must regain back above $4,500 for starters and preferably over $4,800 and close over that level. For silver, we need to regain above $80 and then above $90 to convince us that a low is in. For the TGD, those points are over 890, then over 955. We have considerable work to do. And we must also not make any further lows. If that happens, then we know our E wave is not complete.

It has been a frustrating period for the gold bugs as the reason for holding gold has not gone away. Central banks continue to buy gold. We can’t help but note that foreign holdings of U.S. treasuries actually fell in March (latest report), down $138.4 billion. Notably, China’s holdings of U.S. treasuries fell $41 billion and are

down $113 billion in the past year. However, China’s gold holdings have gone up. Central banks added 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 alone, even as treasury holdings fell.

We are being driven back and forth by the Iran/U.S. war and the ongoing “we have a deal, no we don’t” seesaw. This coming week is the June FOMC and a surprise cut in interest rates would spark gold higher. Naturally, the consensus is stand to pat as inflation is not cooperating. That makes it hard to cut rates, regardless of the desires of President Trump.

We continue to hold that a low is at hand – if not in June, then by early July at the latest. The period from July–September is usually a positive seasonal bull period for gold.

Source: www.stockcharts.com
Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: War Spark, Signature Energy, Precious Life

Copyright David Chapman 2026
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