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Silver Market Updates

Incomplete silver COT analysis

May 14, 2018

During March and April a number of articles appeared at precious-metals-focused web sites describing the silver market’s Commitments of Traders (COT) situation as extremely bullish. However, this unequivocally bullish interpretation overlooked aspects of the COT data that were bearish for silver. Taking all aspects of the data into consideration, my interpretation at the time (as presented in TSI commentaries) was that silver’s COT situation was neutral and that the setup for a large rally was…

Market Report: Gold Still Underwritten At $1300

May 11, 2018

Gold and silver refuse to sink below their established lower consolidation levels, despite dollar strength. As can be seen in our headline chart, silver has enjoyed a decent bounce since 1 May, and gold has held firm at $1300, up 5% from the December low. Since last Friday, gold is up $8 in early European trade this morning (Friday) at $1323, having spiked down to as low as $1304 on Wednesday. Over the same time-scale, silver is up 23 cents on balance at $16.75.

Purchasing Power – In Silver

May 08, 2018

Exponential increases in debt, spending, and social programs have a limited lifetime in our finite world. If something cannot continue, it will stop. An ugly reset is inevitable. Silver prices rise as the dollar is devalued. When priced in silver ounces, most commodity prices are stable. When priced in silver, debt and paper assets have risen since 1913 when bankers paid congress to approve the Federal Reserve. Silver has been money and a common currency for thousands of years. Treasury notes…

Market Report: FOMC Minutes Mark The Low

May 04, 2018

This week, gold and silver traded lower ahead of the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday. As widely expected, there was no change in the target for the Fed Funds Rate, which will probably be raised a quarter point in June. Yesterday, precious metals began to recover their poise, improving from the lows of earlier in the week.

Happy Anniversary, Silver Investors!

April 23, 2018

The silver volume that we saw last week was huge and we don’t mean only the one that accompanied the sizable daily price spike. The volume was huge also if we take the entire week into account. In fact, there was only a single week when silver rallied on volume that was bigger than what we saw during last week’s rally – ever. That was the 2011 silver top, when the emotions reached their zenith.

Market Report: Silver Is The Star

April 20, 2018

Having performed indifferently since the price fell in late January, the silver price suddenly broke out of its torpor with a 45-cent rise on Wednesday and peaked intraday yesterday at $17.36. Gold is still confined within its established trading range and is yet to break out.

Silver on the verge of a break out

April 20, 2018

Silver prices are trading almost 25% below the values predicted by our price model. This is the largest downside deviation we have seen in over 25 years. We believe this is the result of massive short selling in the futures market. In order to maintain this downward pressure on silver, speculators would have to continue to sell over 500 million ounces of paper silver per year. A reversal of this positioning could lead a >30% rally in silver prices in our view.

Is This The Long-Awaited Silver Short Squeeze, The Beginning Of The Next Bull Market, Or Both? Or, Sigh, Neither?

April 18, 2018

Longer term, this is the kind of attention-getting action that puts an asset back on the radar screens of non-true-believers. As hard as it is for us gold-bugs to imagine, the vast majority of people aren’t watching precious metals and have no idea why silver matters. They do, however, notice when the price of something jumps. So if this short squeeze has legs and generates some headlines, it could pull in enough momentum chasing money to create a positive feedback loop in which rising prices…

Silver Bullion Remains Good Value On Positive Supply And Demand Factors

April 18, 2018

– Industrial demand set to continue to climb from 2017, into 2018 and beyond – Speculators are bearish on silver as net short positions in silver futures reach record – Investment demand sees silver ETF holdings at eight-month high of 665.4 million ozs – 2017 saw fifth consecutive annual physical deficit in scrap silver, of 26 moz – Global silver mine production fell 4% last year, 2nd consecutive year of decline – Fundamentals and speculative positions suggest silver may soon see strong…

Market Report: Break-Out Hopes Dashed

April 13, 2018

After inching better on Monday and Tuesday, gold and silver finally made a break for it on Wednesday in good volume on Comex, with gold peaking at $1365 intraday, and silver at $16.87. Those of us watching gold’s established trading range, and silver’s extreme oversold position thought this could be the start of a major breakout to the upside. Those hopes were dashed on Thursday, when both metals retreated, giving up most of their gains on the week.

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