While many are talking about major new bull markets in gold, silver and the miners I find it safer to set realistic goals within a still very bullish outlook. After all, we became bullish in November, had to retrench due to over-bullish sentiment and fading fundamentals in February (both situations linked here) and then have been back in the bull seat since the gold stock launch as noted on June 3rd.
The point being, I have nothing to prove to you; nothing to woo you and tempt your greed impulse about. NFTRH has simply called the sector in line with its fundamentals and technicals, and that is what we continue to do as of this day. We chart 20 quality miners (+/-) each week and note short-term targets, resistance, etc. for the miners, gold and silver routinely.
What I like best is that due to the big picture view I can put forth a conservative 2019 plan, and it still calls for a minimum of another 70% upside for the HUI index. Within that, many of the miners we track will do much better. And within that, we have not even seen the speculative end wake up yet. Those would be the little TSX-V type penny stock bottle rockets (lottery tickets) that pull 400% rallies out of nowhere when they finally get played.
Okay, let’s reel it in to the lumbering big pictures on HUI, gold and silver. As noted, there will be bumps and pullbacks along the way. Monthly charts are not preferred for managing those situations so we’ll stick with the dailies and weeklies in NFTRH reports. But with the ferocity of the current rally (and the fundamentals behind it) it appears a good bet that a second leg to the impulsive ‘A’ leg in 2016 is underway after the beautiful consolidation that killed everyone’s spirits (as it should) since 2016.
Personally, I believe Huey is going to a higher high above the ‘A’ high and given that there is virtually no resistance from there until the mid/upper 300s, you can see the target – perhaps to be registered by late 2019 – at the thick long-term resistance zone. At such time, assuming the fundamentals remain intact (and with some of the signals I see out there that is a big assumption) we can then gauge a “major new bull market” along with all the cheerleaders sure to be waving the golden poms.
Bottom Line: A conservative technical view still includes potential for big time gains. If the fundamentals are good at the time we reach target we’ll revise. Simple.
Bottom Line: Gold did its usual job of leading the way out during the counter-cyclical and/or deflationary phase. Now it is handing off to its bros, Huey and Hiho.
Bottom Line: We’ve been expecting silver to wake up for some time now. This week it woke up, broke the daily consolidation handle and launched, much as we’d noted the miners had done back in early June. If all goes to plan silver will out pace gold like crazy in the coming months and if so my friends, there’s no fever like silver fever… provided you know when to back away from the punch bowl.
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