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Silver Market Update

The more pessimistic scenario is that the apparent Head-and-Shoulders bottom is a phoney and that silver will go on to break below the 2 support levels shown and head towards the lower boundary of the downtrend in force from last April - May, and possibly breach the lower boundary of the channel. This is a development that we can expect to ensue if the dollar index breaks out above 80 to embark on another substantial upleg. The MACD indicator shown at the bottom of the chart reveals a momentum breakdown that increases the risk of such a move.

Resolution of the pattern completing in silver will depend very much on which way the dollar index breaks from its Triangle. The outlook for the dollar is discussed in the parallel Gold Market update to which you are referred, but in summary the prospects for the dollar depend on whether the debt situation in Europe gets out of control and eclipses the otherwise strongly bullish (for Precious Metals) massive money creation in Europe, the US and eslewhere.

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